Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Barbashev a Cut Above

We are just a few hours away from the Stanley Cup Final kicking off in Sin City, with the Vegas Golden Knights sitting as slight -130 to -140 home favorites vs. the Florida Panthers. The total remains at 5.5 on the NHL odds board.

Despite this being a matchup of the No. 1 team in the West vs. the lowest seed in the East, this series is projected to go long, and the games should be tight. With both clubs showing they can adapt to any style of play in the postseason, should bettors be looking at the three-way market for value in the series, especially in Game 1 where the teams might be a little slower with all the time off?

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Panthers vs. Golden Knights Game 1 on Saturday, June 3.

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 odds

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 predictions

Ivan Barabshev has points in six of his last eight playoff games, plays on the Golden Knights' top scoring line, and is plus-money to record a point in the NHL player props in Game 1 with his team getting the last change. 

Vegas’ acquisition of the winger has not gotten enough attention. Since coming over and joining the top line with Jack Eichel and Jonathan Marchessault, the former St. Louis forward has totaled 31 points in 41 games. He currently sits tied for first on the team in points/60 minutes at five-on-five in the postseason.

The only knock on him (and the reason the Over on his points prop isn’t -130) is that he doesn’t play on the first power-play unit. But his matchup at 5-on-5 is still great, as Florida sits 11th of the 16 playoff teams in scoring chances against/60 at even strength, and 10th in high-danger chances allowed/60. Panthers netminder Sergei Bobrovsky has been the best player in the playoffs, but it’s tough to maintain that kind of focus over a nine-day hiatus. 

This is going to be a close series, and Barbashev gets more minutes in one-goal games. Considering Florida has played eight straight one-goal games entering Saturday, bettors should get 17-plus minutes from the Vegas winger Saturday night, which will make this Over more probable. 

My best bet: Barbashev Over 0.5 points (+105)

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 same-game parlay

Barbashev Over 0.5 points

Bennett Over 0.5 points 

Marchessault Over 3.5 shots on goal

+625 at bet365

This works out to pretty much fair odds even with a slight correlation with Marchessault and Barbeshev playing on the same line. Barbeshev has 15 points in 17 playoff games and has been to the Stanly Cup Finals before.

Sam Bennett and Matthew Tkachuk will have to lead this team physically and offensively, as the Knights have a big blue line. Bennett also leads the Panthers in SOG/60 and SAT/60 at even strength, and has a shooting percentage that is below his career numbers.

Marchessault paces his team in SAT/60, and is getting over 50% of his shot attempts on net. He also gets a great shooting matchup vs. the Panthers, as only one of the 16 playoff teams has allowed more shots per game.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Vegas opened as -130 home favorites in Game 1, and that price hadn’t moved all week before starting to shift to -135 as of Friday afternoon. This price is also telling bettors that these two teams would be a pick ‘em on neutral ice, as the home-ice advantage is worth roughly 20 to 25 points. 

This is a series that I expect to go at least six games, and is going to be tight because these are two similar squads with a pair of coaches that have shown they can beat any style of opponent.

Paul Maurice got his club to beat the outright betting favorites in three straight rounds, having defeated the best team in NHL history in the Bruins, then shutting down the elite offense of the Maple Leafs before sweeping a great defensive team and well-coached club in the Hurricanes. Florida has shown they can adapt to any style of play, match up well vs. Vegas, and have a great forecheck game that can go toe-to-toe with the Knights.

Bruce Cassidy deserves a lot of credit for where this Vegas club is, and although this is a matchup of the best team in the West vs. the worst record of all 16 playoff teams, it’s going to be a tight series. 

Both clubs have elite talent on the top scoring line, have great defensive second lines, possess solid depth scoring, and have great depth on the blue line.

Even both teams’ weaknesses match up, as both clubs don’t have great special teams and have been relying on goaltending that has produced at a rate well above expected. 

If Adin Hill and Sergei Bobrovsky can carry their play into the final round despite the long break, this series is going to see some low-scoring affairs. Supporting this argument are also the underlying metrics that show neither club has an expected goal percentage at 50% or better at all strengths. Both the Knights and Panthers have played more defensively with the lead, leading to fewer multi-goal wins. Florida has played eight straight one-goal games, and has gone to overtime in five of their last 10 playoff games.

I’m leaning on the Under in Game 1 at 5.5 (-110), but with FanDuel paying +360 for a tie with some other books as short as +300, I’m happy to go big and bet for overtime. 

These two teams are so similar and have coaches that can adjust on the fly. This is going to be a long and tight series, and both the moneyline and series prices are indicating that as well. 

Panthers vs Golden Knights betting trend to know

The Under is 8-1 in the Panthers' last nine overall. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Golden Knights.

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 game info

Panthers vs Golden Knights Game 1 injuries

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