It’s not often you can clear the slate immediately after taking the biggest beating of your season.
But that’s the opportunity facing the Tampa Bay Lightning, who host the Dallas Stars tonight after taking an 8-1 whipping in Texas on Saturday night.
The books are picking a more competitive affair at Amalie Arena, with each team at -110 on the moneyline in the NHL odds.
Read below as I break down the matchup and share my free NHL picks for Stars vs. Lightning on Monday, December 4.
Stars vs Lightning odds
Stars vs Lightning predictions
It’s been a solid run for the Dallas Stars, having lost just twice in regulation over their last 11, with a home obliteration of Tampa before embarking on a three-game road trip.
Talk about total team effort: 14 of Dallas’ 18 skaters recorded points, and eight players posted multi-point games. Balance is the name of their game. The Stars are sixth in league scoring, averaging a robust 3.55 goals per game while holding teams to 2.77 goals against, which ranks eighth.
They’re among the league’s best penalty-killing units, tied for third with an 88.5% success rate while staying inside the Top 10 with the power play. Both were on display against the Tampa Bay Lightning, as they cashed on both power play opportunities while surrendering just one goal in Tampa's six extra-man advantages.
The Lightning have hit the skids, currently riding a season-long four-game losing streak. Tampa has scored just five goals over that stretch and has been blown up for 19. It’s been a rough return from injury for goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy. After winning 8-2 in his return from back surgery, Vasilevskiy has allowed at least four goals in his next three starts, all losses and he’s currently carrying a 3.87 GAA and a grim .859 save percentage.
That’s a stark contrast to Dallas netminder Jake Oettinger — one of nine goalies in the NHL with at least 10 wins — who ranks inside the Top 10 with a .920 save percentage and a 2.44 GAA.
Tampa is a Top-10 scoring team themselves, putting up 3.32 goals per game, including the league's second-best power play that converts at a 31.8% clip. But the Lightning are a Bottom-3 team in goals allowed, surrendering 3.72 per contest.
The Lightning are better at home, with a 6-3-3 record, but Dallas has feasted on the road. At 8-1-2 away from American Airlines Center, only the 9-0-0 Los Angeles Kings have fewer regulation road losses.
The blowout ain’t happening tonight, but the Stars will continue to stay hot.
My best bet: Stars moneyline (-110 at SIA)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Stars vs Lightning same-game parlay
Stars moneyline
Over 5.5
Nikita Kucherov anytime goal
We’ve already talked about Dallas’ potent offense, and they have scored two goals or fewer in just two of their last 11 games.
Tampa didn’t really help much with the Over against Dallas last game, and they’ve gone Under in the team total in their last three, but they’re scoring 3.5 goals per game at home while allowing 3.17 against.
The Over is 11-3-4 in the last 18 meetings between these teams in Tampa Bay. I’m banking on those numbers to hold and the score to go Over.
We’ll finish with Tampa’s Nikita Kucherov, who leads the Lightning in scoring and was one of the lone point-getters in that last meeting. He’s the top goal-scorer for the Lightning at Amalie Arena, with nine tallies in 11 games. He’s also second in team power-play goals, and those added opportunities to find the net with their potent man advantage is worth a sprinkle against Dallas.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Stars vs Lightning moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Most books have kept the moneyline even at -110, with just slight variations between them. The biggest discrepancy we could find was Tampa at -125, and Dallas at -110.
Dallas hasn't enjoyed many of its trips to Florida of late, as the Stars have just a single win in their last six visits to Tampa Bay. Overall, Tampa has won 13 of the last 18 meetings.
As for the total, most books have settled at 6.0-6.5 goals, though we have found a couple of books ducking to 5.5. On the year, the Stars’ Over/Under record is 12-10, while Tampa’s is right there as well, at 12-11.
The Over is 4-0 in the Stars’ last four against teams with a losing record, while the Over is 4-1-1 in the Lightning’s last six games in the second game of a home-and-home scenario.
Stars vs Lightning betting trend to know
Dallas is 10-2 in their last 12 against the Eastern Conference. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Lightning.
Stars vs Lightning game info
| Location: | Amalie Arena, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Monday, December 4, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports Southwest, Bally Sports Sun |
Stars vs Lightning latest injuries
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