We're not saying it's panic time for the Toronto Maple Leafs just yet, but things are starting to — who are we kidding... it's Toronto. The slightest inconvenience causes a red flag and right now there are more flags being waived than an overenthusiastic marching band.
After two demoralizing (and puzzling) losses, up next for the Buds is a home date with the Dallas Stars, who are also coming off an ugly defeat. NHL betting lines have Toronto as a home favorite tonight but is that justified in the eyes of our NHL picks and predictions... considering the Leafs' goaltending struggles and absence of the Hart Trophy favorite?
We'll try to answer that question — can you please stop waving those red flags — with our Stars vs. Maple Leafs betting preview for Tuesday, March 15.
Stars vs Maple Leafs odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The line opened at Toronto -140 but as of noon ET Tuesday morning, the spread has expanded to see the Buds sitting anywhere from that number to as high as -163. The total opened at 6.0 and has moved to 6.5, shaded to the Under.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Stars vs Maple Leafs predictions
Predictions made on 3/15/2022 at 12:03 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Stars vs Maple Leafs game info
• Location: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: TSN4, Bally Sports Southwest-Dallas
Stars vs Maple Leafs betting preview
Key injuries
Stars: Miro Heiskanen D (Out), Braden Holtby G (Day-to-Day).
Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews C (Suspended), Jake Muzzin D (Out), Jack Campbell G (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Stars vs Maple Leafs head-to-head record (2018-2020)
Stars: 2-2-0, 12 goals for.
Maple Leafs: 2-2-0, 15 goals for.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 11-4-1 in Toronto's last 16 home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Maple Leafs.
Stars vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
If you've listened to, like, 30 seconds of Toronto sports media over the last few days, you'd assume the sky is falling and the apocalypse is looming.
If you've watched their "goaltending" over the last few games, err, months, you'd be inclined to agree with that sentiment.
The stats alone say it as the Buds give up the sixth-most goals against per game (3.62), have the worst team 5-on-5 save percentage (88.16%), and the worst 5-on-5 goals saved above average by a landslide (-22.62, Detroit is second-worst at -13.71) since January 1 (per Natural Stat Trick). But watching nightly as Jack Campbell and Petr Mrazek both struggle to make the tough saves and cough up at least one back-breaking softy per night is becoming too much of a burden for this team.
You need not look any further back than Sunday's Heritage Classic for proof, as Toronto struggled in the first period against Buffalo (which is bad anyways), rebounded with a strong second period and went into the third tied 2-2... and then Mrazek let in a Vinnie Hinostroza shot from nearly the goal line, where the Leafs' goalie was inexplicably off his post (a mistake no NHLer should make), and you could see the spirit ripped from the Toronto players, who would not recover over the final 15 minutes.
Shoot to get hot, shoot to stay hot. #LetsGoBuffalo pic.twitter.com/6kzFPlmPWx
— Buffalo Sabres (@BuffaloSabres) March 13, 2022
With Mrazek having given up at least four goals in four straight outings, and Campbell sidelined with injury, Toronto is turning to 25-year-old rookie Erik Kallgren to get the start tonight. A seventh-round pick in 2015, Kallgren has one career NHL appearance, when he relieved Mrazek five days ago and stopped 10 of 11 shots in an overtime loss to Arizona.
Considering Kallgren has a 3.02 GAA and .904 SV% in 26 AHL games this season, we're not overly enthusiastic about his chances at ending Toronto's run of hemorrhaging goals tonight against a Dallas squad that has potted 4+ goals in five of its last six games.
Compounding matters is that the Leafs, despite having a potent offense, are without megastar Auston Matthews tonight, who is serving the first leg of a two-game suspension. While the Buds have also scored 4+ goals in six of their last eight contests, of those 37 total goals, nearly a quarter of them came off Matthews' stick and he had a point on more than 35% of those total goals.
Taking him out of the lineup not just removes the best player on the ice, but it also disrupts the hottest line in hockey — Mitch Marner and Michael Bunting will likely skate with John Tavares — and weakens Toronto's scoring depth as Tavares is replaced on the second line by Alex Kerfoot, who will center William Nylander and Nick Robertson.
We haven't talked much about Dallas... because we don't need to: the Stars have two forward lines that are clicking and have a massive goaltending edge with Jake Oettinger, who is coming off a horrible outing against the Rangers but had given up two goals or fewer in seven of his nine prior games.
They're a competent hockey team and given the, ahem, red flags with Toronto right now, we can't ignore the value on Dallas to come away with a win.
Prediction: Stars moneyline (+126)
Over/Under analysis
Simply put, Leafs games are automatic Over bets for us right now.
The Over has cashed in five straight Toronto games and seven of its last eight overall, with the only Under coming with the Buds scoring just one goal in a poor effort against Buffalo (again) to start off the month. But Toronto still conceded five goals that game and has surrendered fewer than three goals just once (!!!) in its last 12 games.
Woof.
As mentioned above, we don't see the Buds slowing down Dallas' offense tonight with Kallgren between the pipes — so the question is can the Matthews-less Leafs score enough to contribute to the Over?
Toronto has only played three games this season without the MVP frontrunner, which were the first three games of the year. The Buds managed seven goals in those three games, against Montreal and Ottawa (twice), but had 12.61 expected goals (per Moneypuck), telling us that they were able to generate chances... but couldn't convert (not overly surprising considering they were without their premier sniper).
While the Stars are a better defensive team than both the Habs and Sens, Dallas has gotten a little leakier without stud blueliner Miro Heiskanen, who has missed the last four games (and will be out for the foreseeable future with mononucleosis). During his absence, the team is giving up the fourth-most 5-on-5 high-danger chances against per 60 (14.32) and the fifth-most expected goals against/60 — and given up goal totals of three, three, two, and seven in those games.
The Maple Leafs still have some dynamic offensive talents, with Marner, Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, and Rielly all at 46 points or better, so they should be able to still manage a couple of goals tonight and get this Over the total.
Assuming, of course, the Stars don't just hit this total themselves.
Prediction: Over 6 (-120)
Best bet
This one is pretty straightforward: Dallas can score goals, netting at least three goals in regulation in five of six (and at least four total goals in each of those games to boot).
The Leafs cannot keep the puck out of their net, with opponents getting at least three goals in regulation in eight straight games and 11 of their last 12 (hitting 4+ total goals in 10 of those games). Plus Toronto also has a seventh-round pick from six years ago making his first career NHL start, who is sporting a GAA north of 3.00 in the AHL.
Maybe Kallgren catches lightning in a bottle, has a miraculous debut, and turns it into a storybook-like stretch where he solves Toronto's goaltending woes as the Buds march into the playoffs...
...orrrrrr he is the latest Leafs goalie to get lambasted as their opponents again hang a crooked number.
We're playing the safe route here and taking the Stars to score at least three goals in regulation at -130, but have no issues with taking Dallas to pot four goals overall — available at much juicier plus-money odds.
Pick: Stars 60-minute team total Over 2.5 (-130)
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