The Western Conference Final resumes tonight at Rogers Place as the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers head north of the border with the series tied 1-1.
This has the makings of a back-and-forth series, and Oilers starter Stuart Skinner has taken the spotlight of my Stars vs. Oilers prediction. Find out why I'm taking the Over on his saves in my NHL picks for Monday, May 27.
My best bet
Stuart Skinner Over 23.5 saves (-120 at Sports Interaction)
My analysis
The Edmonton Oilers have suppressed the shot volume from the Dallas Stars through the first two games of the Western Conference Final, with Big D registering a pedestrian 24.76 shots and 54.65 attempts per 60 minutes.
Dallas recorded 26.81 and 63.71 marks through the first two rounds of the playoffs after registering 31.17 shots and 63.84 attempts per 60 during the regular season, and generating scoring opportunities goes hand-in-hand with putting an emphasis on pucks on net.
I expect a trip north, and a mid-series reset to be the catalysts for Dallas upping the shot volume in Game 3 on the road.
The Stars already have higher shots (28.82) and attempts (64.99) per 60 marks on the highway during the postseason, and being held to just 25 shots on 50 attempts in Game 2 is bulletin board material. Dallas has been overly creative in the offensive zone by holding onto the puck in potential shooting situations and also trying to be too cute with high-risk passes to start the series.
Look for the Stars to simplify their game tonight because being lapped in the possession battle and shot share isn’t a winning formula.
Turning to the focal point, Oilers No. 1 Stuart Skinner has found his game. He’s turned in a .921 SV% and 1.62 GAA across his past four starts following a two-game breather last round, and his saves total has bottomed out. Skinner traded at a 26.5 total to conclude Round 1, and he’s gone under the number in seven of his past eight games, so we're landing a low number Monday.
Hats off to the Oilers, but the Stars are too well coached to continue being so passive in the offensive zone. Skinner is going to see more rubber in Game 3.
Stars vs Oilers same-game parlay (SGP)
Stars moneyline
Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
Dallas is 5-1 on the road during the postseason and has the high-scoring Oil to four goals and just 1.71 per 60 to start the series. Edmonton doesn’t have the offensive depth to create consistent mismatches, and even with Skinner’s solid recent run, Stars No. 1 Jake Oettinger is better.
Connor McDavid scoring is an uncorrelated leg in this same-game parlay, so it boosts the odds nicely. He’s only scored three times with an 8.1 shooting percentage across 14 postseason games, so there’s potential for a splash of statistical correction considering No. 97 sports a 15.4 SH% across the past five regular seasons.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Stars vs Oilers odds
Stars vs Oilers live odds
Stars vs Oilers opening odds
- Puck line: Dallas +1.5 (-225) | Edmonton -1.5 (+185)
- Moneyline: Dallas +105 | Edmonton -125
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 (-120) | Under 5.5 (+100)
Stars vs Oilers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This moneyline has moved to the Edmonton side at Sports Interaction, with the Oilers opening at -125 and trading at -130 as of Monday afternoon.
- It’s worth noting Pinnacle has Edmonton -123 after opening at -125, so there hasn’t been enough action on either side to make a meaningful move at that respected shop.
- Similarly, the total is a consensus 5.5, and there’s been limited odds movement.
- I’m partial to the Over after the two teams have combined for just nine goals through the first two games of the series, but I’m not rushing to the window, either.
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Stars vs Oilers trend
Dallas is 5-1 on the road during the playoffs. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Oilers.
Stars vs Oilers game info
| Location: | Rogers Place, Edmonton, AB |
| Date: | Monday, 5-27-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 8:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Stars vs Oilers latest injuries
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