Game 5 of this Western Conference series is set to get underway with the Dallas Stars hosting the Minnesota Wild.
After these teams alternated each of the first four games of this opening round, this matchup has now turned into a best-of-three series with Dallas boasting two home games.
Will the Stars take care of business on home ice, or can the Wild pull off the upset on the road before returning home for Game 6? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Wild vs Stars on Tuesday, April 25.
Wild vs Stars Game 5 odds
Wild vs Stars series odds
| Team | To win | Win in 6 | Win in 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wild | +120 | +320 | +330 |
| Stars | -140 | +235 | +225 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of April 25.
Wild vs Stars Game 5 predictions
Minnesota Wild forward Joel Eriksson Ek remains questionable for Game 5 due to an undisclosed injury. After missing six straight games, Eriksson Ek attempted to play in Game 3 before leaving after just one shift.
Eriksson Ek is a massive loss for this club, as he does all the dirty work in front of the net and is probably the best defensive forward on the roster. The Dallas Stars also feature a big absence in the lineup with forward Joe Pavelski sidelined due to his concussion.
However, Minnesota’s lack of depth relative to Dallas makes Eriksson Ek’s absence from the lineup more prominent. Not only are the Stars a deeper team, but they are better both offensively and defensively.
Dallas ranks 18th in the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60) at 5-on-5 since the Christmas break, and second in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60). Meanwhile, over the same stretch, the Wild rank six spots lower in xGF/60 and 14 spots lower in xGA/60 at 5-on-5.
The Stars remain a more solid team offensively and defensively, while also boasting the advantage in net. Slated to take the crease once again for Dallas is Jake Oettinger, who put together another monster campaign between the pipes.
Through 62 appearances in the crease, Oettinger went 37-11-11 with a .919 SV% and a 2.37 GAA. He finished 12th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5-on-5.
This strong play is likely to continue against Minnesota, a team Oettinger typically dominates. Over his past seven starts against the Wild, he is 4-2-1 with a stellar .934 SV% and a 1.99 GAA.
My best bet: Stars moneyline (-139 at Caesars)
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Wild vs Stars Game 5 moneyline analysis
Minnesota's Filip Gustavsson is by far the biggest concern when backing the Stars. Putting together a breakout campaign this season, he remains one of the league’s most underrated netminders.
Oettinger produced a 22-9-7 record with a .931 SV% and 2.10 GAA over 39 appearances in the crease. His strong play has more than continued during the postseason, with Oettinger going 2-1 with a .941 SV% and a 1.72 GAA.
With that in mind, Oettinger can certainly keep up with Gustavsson. Mix in the fact that Dallas boasts both the better offense and defense, and the Stars should take care of business in this pivotal Game 5.
Wild vs Stars Game 5 Over/Under analysis
I lean toward the Under in this contest, but I would not feel too confident one way or the other. Both of these goaltenders are proving to be among the best in the world, which is why there have been six or fewer total goals scored in all three of their matchups in this round.
The Over hit in the lone game that goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury started between the pipes for the Wild, although we should not expect to see him again in this round unless something drastic happens with Gustavsson. Additionally, both clubs rank in the top half of the league in xGA/60 at 5-on-5 since the Christmas break, but in the bottom half in xGF/60.
However, I feel more confident in just backing the Stars to win this contest. With that said, the Under is certainly not a bad play to make, although I do not love the number at 5.5.
Wild vs Stars betting trend to know
The Wild are 12-32 in the last 44 meetings in Dallas. Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Stars.
Wild vs Stars Game 5 game info
| Location: | American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX |
| Date: | Tuesday, April 25, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
