After a shocking upset of Iga Swiatek, young Qinwen Zheng will aim for the biggest title of her young career on Saturday when she competes for gold at the 2024 Paris Olympics.
Zheng and her opponent, Donna Vekic, have never captured a major title on the WTA Tour but have built up momentum in recent months to earn a much-deserved spot in the final.
Find out why I believe the World No. 1 will prove too much to overcome in our Zheng vs. Vekic predictions for August 3.
Zheng vs Vekic prediction and best bet
- My match prediction
Zheng moneyline (-225) - My best bet
Over 21.5 games (-140)
Match analysis
Donna Vekic’s appearance in this match is nothing short of shocking, considering the seasoned veteran has hardly kept her record on clay over .500 in her 13 years playing professional tennis. She did come up with a huge run to the semifinals of Wimbledon, but it followed a hot streak that began in Bad Homburg. Conventional wisdom also suggests that the Croat’s game, built around power, is a key factor.
Well, some hotter conditions in Paris have helped this ball fly through the air a bit quicker, and the evidence would seem to be in the fact that Vekic has now made it through some tough customers in Bianca Andreescu, Coco Gauff, and Marta Kostyuk to get here.
What’s a bit concerning, though, is that Vekic wasn’t faced with much of a test in the semifinals against Anna Schmiedlova, who was something of a Cinderella story in her own right, and her ability on return was likely inflated by the matchup against a poor server.
Qinwen Zheng is one of the best servers in the world, which should put the Vekic return to the test. In her win over Swiatek, the World No. 1 took 66% of points behind her first serve despite landing just 56%.
It’s fair to expect some positive regression to the mean in terms of how many she can land on Saturday, and as the player with more talent and much more success on clay — particularly this season — the edge has to go to the Chinese phenom.
Best best analysis
Vekic went unbroken in the semifinals and didn’t even cough up on break point, and her ability to land more first serves made that match very similar to her big triumph over Gauff. She’s been excellent at saving break points this week at any rate, and against a player who profiles similarly with her reliance on serve and weaker baseline game, I think the chances that she falls well behind here are slim.
With that said, we can also rely on Zheng’s big serve, which has been devastating opponents in Paris. She likely won’t have the same opportunity to attack on the return as she did against Swiatek, who favors a kick serve that bounces up off the clay. Instead, Zheng will face a much firmer, flatter serve from Vekic.
I think this match is ticketed for three sets, but we very well may be headed to one or more tiebreaks. That could get us to this number in a two-set match.
Zheng vs Vekic odds
| Qinwen Zheng | Donna Vekic | |
|---|---|---|
| -225 | Moneyline | +175 |
| -3.5 (-120) | Game spread | +3.5 (-120) |
| Over 21.5 (-140) | Total games | Under 21.5 (-110) |
Odds as of 8-2.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
