Canada vs New Zealand Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women's Soccer

Defending Olympic champions Canada kick off their bid for another women’s soccer medal on Thursday as they face New Zealand in Saint-Etienne.

Though Christine Sinclair has since called time on her legendary career, the Canadians have plenty of veterans from their golden run in Tokyo, but painful memories of last year’s World Cup group stage exit loom large.

Meanwhile, the Football Ferns showed some promising signs in their Olympic qualifying campaign, but this tournament represents a step up in quality. My Canada vs New Zealand predictions take a closer look at this Group A clash on Thursday, July 25.

Canada vs New Zealand prediction and best bet

The North remembers

Match prediction
Canada to win (-400)

My analysis
It’s tough to know what to expect from the Canadians heading into this tournament, though it may be in their favor to be somewhat flying under the radar, given all the attention on the USWNT, Spain, and France as the inner circle of medal contenders.

On paper, this should be the Canadians’ easiest fixture in Group A, and the task got a little simpler after New Zealand captain Ali Riley was withdrawn from the Olympic squad this week due to injury. That leaves the Football Ferns with more question marks defensively.

Canada rightly enter as big favorites to pick up the three points here, though I’d be a little wary about picking Bev Priestman’s team in any kind of Asian handicap until we see how quickly they find top gear.

After all, while there have been some major changes since the World Cup, it’s hard to forget how disjointed and short on ideas the Canadians were Down Under.

But there’s good reason for New Zealand being +1,200 underdogs. They were second-best in two friendlies against Japan this summer and needed a penalty to tie 1-1 with Zambia in an Olympics tune-up this month. With such patchy form, it will be a tall task to get past an experienced Canada defense marshalled by Vanessa Gilles and Kadeisha Buchanan.

This matchup could have a little extra edge after New Zealand lodged a formal complaint to the IOC, alleging that a drone had been flown over their practice session, but I still see Canada’s superior talent getting the job done.

Leon the professional

My best bet
Adriana Leon anytime scorer (+125)

My analysis
In the post-Sinclair era, Canada needed someone to step up as a consistent goal threat — and so far, that’s been the ever-reliable Adriana Leon.

After the misery of being shut out in two of their three World Cup contests last year, Canada rebounded in free-scoring style in a run to the 2024 Concacaf Women’s Gold Cup semifinals, with Leon shouldering most of the scoring burden alongside Arsenal’s Cloe Lacasse.

I’m looking to Leon for my best bet here. She scored six goals in this year’s Gold Cup, added two more in the SheBelieves Cup in April, and also found the net in an exhibition win over Mexico last month.

That’s the kind of form that could make Canada a sneaky dark horse in France, and the Aston Villa striker gives Priestman some line-up flexibility with her comfort level playing anywhere across the front three. 

While I expect a resolute, organized performance from New Zealand here, Canada have enough quality in the final third to create chances, particularly with Jayde Riviere and Ashley Lawrence roaming forward in the wing-back roles and the all-action Jessie Fleming controlling the midfield.

That all bodes well for this Leon prop. She’s a proven tournament scorer — even providing one of the few highlights from the last World Cup with her winner against the Republic of Ireland — and the stage is set for Leon to be a difference-maker on Thursday.

Canada vs New Zealand odds

Odds as of 7-24.

Canada vs New Zealand game info

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