Two European heavyweights — Italy and Germany — will meet on Thursday in the first leg of their UEFA Nations League quarterfinals.
It’s only the first of two games between the teams in the next week, and that, combined with injuries and a lack of attacking talent, is why our Italy vs. Germany predictions expect scoring to be held in check.
Read on for my UEFA Nations League free betting picks for Thursday, March 20, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET on ViX.
Italy vs Germany picks and predictions
My best bet: Under 2.5 (-136 at TonyBet)
My analysis
These are two evenly matched squads at the moment. Coming into this game, Italy have lost just once — to France last time out — while the Germans are undefeated.
If every injured player was available, Germany would be the team to wager on, but considering the injuries to their attacking players, the value is lost. However, that lack of firepower means the Under 2.5 comes into play.
We’ll start with Italy, a team that's a far cry from the excellent sides that they’ve had in the past. This team lacks world-class players and many of this version's starters wouldn't even make the great squads of the past.
Look no further than their striking options. Mateo Retegui will start through the middle, but he’s far from a classic Italian striker. He’s scored 22 times in 27 games for Atalanta in Serie A but he’s not a truly elite striker at the international level and has just six goals in 18 games for the Azzurri.
The defense isn’t stacked with elite players, especially with Federico Dimarco out, but there’s reasonable quality, and their back five should also be able to limit Germany.
Unlike the Italians, this German side has some truly elite stars. However, their best player, Florian Wirtz, is sidelined and will miss this international window. The 21-year-old is one of the best talents in Europe and equally capable of scoring as he is at creating goals for others.
Also missing is Kai Havertz, who may be maligned by Arsenal fans but is a solid contributor to his team. He's scored 20 times in 55 games for Germany, many of which he hasn’t played as the No. 9.
Missing the now-retired Toni Kroos means that Germany lacks a midfielder with the quality to dictate play and keep rolling over presentation, with Robert Andrich and Pascal Gross unable to do what Kroos could.
The Germans still have Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala in their ranks, but against the back five of Italy, they’ll have less space than they’re used to. In terms of goals, it’ll be Tim Kleindienst, who’ll be playing down the middle, but he’s only played four times for his country at the age of 29, and despite being in good form for Gladbach, he can’t be relied upon to excel at this level.
We’ll likely have a tight, cagey game with neither team looking to lose this first-leg tie. With the second leg on Sunday casting a shadow over this game and neither squad being one of their nation’s best, I'm looking to the Under 2.5.
Italy vs Germany same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Draw
Jamal Musiala anytime goalscorer
We’re set to see the game finishing level. This is the first leg of this quarterfinal tie, meaning both teams will be looking to avoid defeat in the first game. Given the attacking quality on both sides — with Italy’s lack of superstars and Germany’s injuries — there’s a great chance of this finishing level.
Lastly, we'll look for Jamam Musiala to score. The 22-year-old is a key part of this German team, and without Wirtz, there will be even more responsibility on him to create and score goals. Up front, it’ll be Kleindienst, but he’s not proven at this level, meaning Musiala, who’ll be behind him, will have to shoulder many of the team’s hopes.
He’s scored two goals in four Nations League games and is fresh from scoring three times at the Euros for Germany, too. He’s often amongst the goals in big games for his country and that will apply here.
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Italy vs Germany odds
Italy vs Germany live odds
 Italy |
 Germany |
|
|---|---|---|
| +179 | Moneyline | +165 |
| +229 | Draw | +229 |
| Over 2.5 (+114) | Total | Under 2.5 (-136) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Italy vs Germany side and Over/Under analysis
- Italy’s defeat to France in their last game was their first in five games. Germany haven’t lost since losing to Spain at Euro 2024.
- Germany won 5-2 when these teams last met in June 2022.
How to watch Italy vs Germany
| Location | Stadio Giuseppe Meazza, Milan, Italy |
| Date | Thursday, 3-20-2025 |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
| Weather | Rain showers. |
Italy vs Germany key injuries
Italy: Federico Dimarco FB (Out).
Germany: Florian Wirtz FWR (Out), Marc-Andre ter Stegen GK (Out), Kai Havertz FWR (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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