The second leg of the UEFA Nations League quarter-final clash between Germany and Italy takes place in Dortmund on Sunday, with Germany holding a narrow lead.
The Italians performed admirably on home soil, but the away side took the spoils, their first away win in Italy for 39 years.
Their ability to get the job done is why our Germany vs. Italy predictions have Germany again getting the win, this time on home soil.
Read on for my UEFA Nations League free picks for Sunday, March 23, with kick-off at 3:45 p.m. ET on FS2.
Germany vs Italy picks and predictions
My best bet: Germany to win (-130 at TonyBet)
My analysis
We’re back on Sunday with crucial UEFA Nations League games, and the second installment of Germany vs. Italy is finely poised and set to be an exciting game.
The first leg saw Germany win 2-1 in Milan, despite going one down early to a Sandro Tonali goal and enter the halftime break losing.
It was really impressive how the team rallied, especially with Leon Goretzka also equalizing twice before halftime, but in the second half, they managed to not only level but then win the game, their first victory over Italy on Italian soil in 39 years.
As much as Luciano Spalletti’s Italy impressed, it was Germany’s day, and they should be capable of repeating the result on Sunday.
The Italians gave it a great go, taking more shots than Germany and testing Oliver Baumann frequently. However, Germany just looks more clinical in front of goal, something that will be the deciding factor again on Sunday.
With Florian Wirtz and Kai Havertz both sidelined, it did feel like Germany might struggle to get goals and while that was the case early, the did manage to create good chances and ultimately score.
There were reasons to be optimistic for Germany, firstly Goretzka, who was far and away their best player. The midfielder was a constant menace, particularly from set pieces. He scored one but could, if not should, have had more.
He led the team with four shots, 50% of which were on target.
There was also a strong cameo from Tim Kleindienst. The Gladbach striker has been prolific at the club level, scoring 15 in 25 in the Bundesliga, and after his leveling goal, he now has three goals in five caps for his country.
Whether he is really international standard, and the striker who can win Germany another World Cup, isn’t yet clear, but when he came on at halftime, it gave the team a more orthodox striker, and we’re likely to see him start this second leg tie.
What really stood out was Julian Nagelsmann’s ability to make in-game changes to impact the outcome for Germany. He saw his initial set-up wasn’t working and made changes at halftime, changes that got Germany back into the game.
That ability to identify problems and act quickly gives his team a huge advantage, and it’s something that will help them in this second-leg game if Italy starts stronger once again.
However, with this game taking place in Dortmund, not Milan, and having the first leg to look back on, we’re likely to see Germany start the game better than Thursday.
Germany has dangerous attackers, particularly behind the front-man in Leroy Sane and Jamal Musiala, and should be able to exploit any spaces that Italy leaves when trying to get themselves back into this game.
Take the Germans to win another exciting game between these two blue-blooded European giants.
Germany vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Germany to win
Over 0.5 1H goals
Both teams to score
The second leg of Germany vs. Italy requires a +260 Same-Game Parlay.
As always we’re starting with our best bet for the game, then following that up with Over 0.5 goals in the first half.
We saw Sandro Tonali score in the first 45 minutes for Italy in the first-leg game, but what was interesting was the volume of chances in the first half of that matchup.
Heading into this second leg, it’s also likely we’ll see an early goal with Italy looking to get back in the tie and Germany, in theory, being the stronger side.
We’re also backing Both teams to score. We saw both teams find the back of the net in the first leg, and that’s likely to happen again.
We’re backing Germany for the reasons above, so you already know why they’ll score, but with Italy, it was impressive just how often they managed to test Oliver Baumann in goal, and Italy actually led Germany in shots in the last game with 13 to 10.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Germany vs Italy odds
Germany vs Italy live odds
 Germany |
 Italy |
|
|---|---|---|
| (-130) | Moneyline | (+359) |
| +285 | Draw | (+285) |
| Over 2.5 (-118) | Total | Under 2.5 (+100) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet.
Germany vs Italy side and Over/Under analysis
- Germany won 2-1 when these teams met in the first leg on Thursday in Milan
- Italy’s defeat to Germany on Thursday means they’ve lost their past two games.
- There have been Over 2.5 goals in six of Italy’s seven Nations League games.
- There have been Over 2.5 goals in five of Germany’s seven Nations League games.
How to watch Germany vs Italy
| Location | Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany |
| Date | Sunday, 3-23-2025 |
| Time | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | DAZN |
| Weather | Text |
Germany vs Italy key injuries
Italy: Federico Dimarco FB (Out), Riccardo Calafiori DEF (Questionable).
Germany: Florian Wirtz FWR (Out), Marc-Andre ter Stegen GK (Out), Kai Havertz FWR (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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