American politics rate high on the enjoyment meter for many bettors in the United Kingdom. Punters – the British term for bettors – couldn’t get enough of the 2016 presidential election, so of course, this week’s impeachment hearings launch has drawn plenty of interest at betting windows.
Sportsbook operators Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have a handful of proposition offerings tied to just how long Donald Trump will remain president of the United States. Most relevant among those props right now is whether Trump will be impeached and/or removed from office.
“We’re now substantially odds-on that Trump will be impeached, and that’s for during his first term, i.e. soon,” Paddy Power public relations chief Lee Price told Covers, noting the YES on that proposition is at -400.
However, that prop only addresses impeachment by the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives, not whether the Senate trial would subsequently lead to a guilty verdict and Trump’s removal. David Fleming, political trader at Paddy Power, indicated that’s a cross-that-bridge-when-we-get-there situation. If the House votes in favor of impeachment, then Paddy Power would follow with a prop bet on whether the Senate would muster a two-thirds majority to vote out Trump.
“Seeing as the Republicans control the Senate, it is likely that he would be odds-on to win that vote in the Senate,” Fleming said.
At Ladbrokes, the impeachment offering is written up to cover the whole process: to be removed from office via impeachment or resignation in first term. Therefore, the odds are almost opposite Paddy Power’s offering, with a YES price of +350 and NO a -500 favorite, recognizing the unlikelihood of a Senate guilty verdict.
“We’ve seen a fair bit of money at the 7/2 that this process ends up with him being removed from office, but we're holding the price at the moment,” said Matthew Shaddick, head of political betting at Ladbrokes.
A second offering at Ladbrokes provides several more options for bettors: when will Trump be replaced as president? The favorite is 2021 – presumably inauguration day, should Trump lose the 2020 election – at +138, followed by 2025 or later – ostensibly, inauguration after the 2024 election – at 2/1. Trump being removed this year is the 16/1 fourth choice, with next year No. 3 at +350, and the odds are 50/1 on 2022, 2023 or 2024.
However, reading between those lines, oddsmakers lean toward Trump staying in office through 2020 and potentially beyond.
“He remains the favorite for next year’s presidential election, at 6/5 (+120), and is 2/9 (-450) to complete his first term in office,” Price said, while noting a U.S.-Britain prop that ties into this, too. “We also think Trump (-300) will outlast Boris Johnson politically.”
At Ladbrokes, Trump is the +138 favorite to win the 2020 election, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 5/1, Joe Biden at 6/1 and Pete Buttigieg at 8/1, with all other contenders at 12/1 or more. But there’s a real wild card at the bottom of those odds – the 2016 Democratic nominee.
“Still the most notable thing about the election odds is the nonstop support for Hillary Clinton, who would be our worst result by far,” Shaddick said, noting Clinton is currently 33/1. “We’ve taken more money on her to be the (Democratic) nominee than any of the actual runners.”
That unlikely occurrence would set up a 2016 rematch, presuming Trump isn’t removed or opts to resign, which is another offering, though Paddy Power’s price tells all.
“Will he resign? We go 1/12 for NO, which says a great many things very concisely,” Price said of the -1,200 listing.
Shaddick said Trump being out within the next year presents intriguing positive options at Ladbrokes, but it introduces dilemmas as well. A 2020 GOP ticket led by current vice president Mike Pence – or really anyone else – isn’t very attractive to oddsmakers or bettors.
“From a strictly betting point of view, I have mixed feelings about this,” Shaddick said. “On the one hand, we've taken a lot of cash on Trump to be re-elected, and a different GOP candidate would put us in a great position. On the other, a Trump re-election bid would be the biggest political betting event in history.”
