Bettors who got involved with event contract prediction platforms, which allowed them to predict the winner of the U.S. presidential election and make a profit if they were correct, are awaiting payouts after Trump’s election victory. Polymarket and Kalshi, the two biggest prediction sites, combined to provide bettors payouts of around $450 million, according to Reuters.
There are different metrics for when a president has officially won the contest. Polymarket allowed bettors to continue backing markets until Fox, NBC, and Associated Press declared Trump had won enough of the electoral college on Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, Kalshi bettors can continue wagering until Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, 2025.
Around 40,000 people in the U.S. bet on Trump winning the election, according to data from Kalshi, with an estimated payout of $159 million on Election Day. Meanwhile, 28,000 people decided to back Kamala Harris. While Polymarket didn’t share any details on how many U.S. and global customers bet on the election, it did reveal its payout pot was around $287 million on Tuesday evening.
There is still plenty of confusion surrounding these platforms in the U.S., with the Connecticut Department of Consumer Protection issuing a warning to clarify the state’s position on election betting ahead of Nov. 5.
Polymarket whale set for big payday
One Polymarket user drew attention for placing around $45 million in wagers on Trump’s victory in the election. While some of their bets have already come in, if Trump also wins the popular vote (still being counted), the bettor could score a profit of up to $80 million.
This wasn’t the only significant bet placed on Trump to win at Polymarket, with another bettor wagering more than $15 million on Nov. 4 and another staking more than $3.7 million on Oct. 7. The event contract site also saw high-value action on Harris, including a bet of more than $5 million on Monday.
While customers took big swings through prediction markets, many billionaires spent vast sums of money betting on their preferred candidate and trying to swing the election with funding. More than 130 billionaires contributed to the two candidates’ campaigns in the lead-up to the election.
Election prediction platforms hit the spotlight
In the weeks leading up to the 2024 Presidential Election, Kalshi, Polymarket, and other popular prediction platforms became part of the national discussion. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour spoke on CNBC’s “Squawk Box” and revealed that the site had seen nearly $200 million traded during the US election.
On Election Day, the apps rose to the top of Apple App Store rankings, overtaking popular apps like Threads and ChatGPT.
Aside from providing entertainment to players who use them, some experts believe these trading tools are useful for capturing the national mood. The dominance of Trump betting was much closer to the election results the U.S. saw compared to polling data that suggested the race was neck and neck.
A Princeton University neuroscience professor explained that prediction markets can “measure crowd wisdom where no hard data is available.”
