Betting on the 2020 presidential election odds is a hot topic among sportsbook operators in the United States.
Political betting is forbidden in legal American sports betting markets - reserved to illegal online books, Canadian and European-based operators. But with the COVID-19 outbreak shutting down the sports world and November looming, 2020 US election betting odds would certainly bolster handle over the next few months and wagering would explode by Election Day.
On the evening of April 7, the West Virginia Lottery, which oversees sports betting in that state, surprisingly signed off on political markets tied to the 2020 presidential election. The announcement was followed by FanDuel Sportsbook’s mobile operation in West Virginia posting several election betting odds.
However, within a few minutes of presidential election odds going up, they came down.
Why can’t I bet on the election?
More than a few sports law/betting minds quickly pointed out political betting might not be legal in West Virginia, per existing state statute, nor anywhere else in the United States, per a 2012 ruling from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
FanDuel put out a statement reading: “While the markets were approved, the West Virginia Lottery has asked FanDuel to refrain from offering the markets until they have time to fully work through the implications of this new market offering."
The props haven’t gone back up, and who knows if they will. What that situation seems to show is that betting on political odds faces an uphill battle in the states, despite being widely available and hugely popular in the legal, regulated jurisdictions of the United Kingdom and Ireland. And of course, those odds are easily found and wagered on - at high volume - at offshore books.
When can I bet on politics?
Outside of special circumstances, legal betting on political odds in the United States isn't likely until 2021 at the earliest and that's an optimistic projection.
As is apparently the case in West Virginia, Nevada faces a state legislative hurdle, with a law on the books declaring that betting on an election is illegal.
“In order for licensed sportsbooks in Nevada to accept wagers on elections, the State of Nevada’s Legislature would be required to convene and change the law,” Nevada Gaming Control Board senior analyst Mike Lawton told Covers.
The Nevada Legislature meets every two years, with the next session beginning in February 2021. So the only way Nevada sportsbooks could offer 2020 election odds is if the Legislature called a special session, which perhaps could happen in order to address the extraordinary budget issues created by the COVID 19 pandemic. But election betting would surely not be on the radar for such a session.
And even if legislators approved a political betting bill, be it this year or at any later point, there’s still the CFTC federal ruling in the way.
New Jersey, which has been ahead of the curve in many regulatory respects, also isn’t keen on political betting. David Rebuck, director of the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, said that as a matter of public policy, the division has not permitted wagering on political events.
But as a matter of public popularity, and popularity among oddsmakers, political betting is a slam dunk. And it continues to be with operators outside of the United States.
Odds to win 2020 presidential election
| US Election Betting Odds (European sportsbooks) | Odds (as of April 16) |
|---|---|
| Donald Trump | -120 |
| Joe Biden | +120 |
| Hillary Clinton | +3,500 |
| Andrew Cuomo | +4,000 |
| Mike Pence | +5,000 |
| Michelle Obama | +10,000 |
| Nikki Haley | +12,500 |
| Winning Party | Odds (as of April 16) |
| Republican | -120 |
| Democrat | EVEN |
| Independent | +8,000 |
