Donald Trump has never had it so good in the election betting markets.
The former president, running to reclaim the White House in November, has become the darling of political punters over the past few weeks.
US election odds have very much shifted in a favorable direction again for Trump. And if that is the case with voters, the Republican candidate could romp on Nov. 5.
“Donald Trump's odds, at this point, are the best they have ever been for him," said Sam Rosbottom, spokesperson for U.K.-based Betfair, in an interview with Covers on Tuesday.
BREAKING: Donald Trump is now the favourite to win every swing state on @BetfairExchange.
— Sam Rosbottom (@BetfairSam) October 21, 2024
This is the first time the former President has been the favourite in all seven key battle grounds at the same time.
Looking at the outright market, he now has a 61% chance of winning. pic.twitter.com/0E7o30OfMJ
As Rosbottom put it, Betfair is a good “yardstick” of sentiment among bettors. More than US$600 million in trading occurred on the Betfair Exchange for the 2020 contest between Trump and eventual winner Joe Biden. The amount wagered with Betfair thus far on the 2024 race was roughly US$195 million as of Tuesday morning.
Meanwhile, again, as of Tuesday morning, Trump's odds on the Betfair Exchange had shortened to around -163, an almost 62% implied probability of victory.
The same has happened at other exchanges and sportsbooks, such as bet365 pricing Trump as a -188 favorite in Ontario as of Tuesday morning, and Kalshi's contract prices projecting a 59% likelihood of a Trump win.
Electoral college schooling
Trump's polling numbers and odds got a bump after a failed assassination attempt on the Republican candidate in July.
However, the state-level betting markets are now painting a favorable picture for Trump as well. This is crucial given Electoral College votes will decide the outcome of the race, not the total number of votes cast by individual Americans for any one candidate.
Betfair’s odds had Democratic candidate Kamala Harris tied with Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin last week, with Harris ahead in Nevada as well.
As of Monday, though, the bump Harris received after Biden’s withdrawal and her own nomination looks like it has dissipated, as Trump had pulled ahead in all three states. Moreover, for the first time this election cycle, the Republican is now favored in all seven swing states that Betfair is following, including Pennsylvania.
So, in an already unprecedented election, Trump has still managed to become something unprecedented himself: a (relatively) big favorite.
Rosbottom said the former president's odds were not even as rosy at the same point in 2020 or 2016, when Trump defeated Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton.
In 2020, he said, the ultimately victorious President Joe Biden led Trump on the oddsboard from May until Trump won Florida on Election Night. In 2016, Clinton was the favorite to win even longer during the campaign, although bettors were mistaken in their thinking there.
"Going into this final month of the campaign, the punters have always been pretty set on who they think is going to win,” Rosbottom said. “As things stand at the moment, they've planted their flag firmly in the Donald Trump camp."
An unpopular turn
Political punters have been somewhat ahead of the curve on Trump, but their opinions now line up with what polls are showing. At RealClearPolitics, the polling averages showed Trump ahead by 1.2 percentage points in the battleground states as of midday Monday, clocking in at 48.4% support compared to Harris' 47.2%.
Trump is even gaining a bit of ground in betting markets tied to the popular vote, although he is still a significant underdog there. Even so, the popular vote is usually a shoo-in for Democratic candidates given their support in populous states such as California.
“Much of his projected popular vote increase seems to be coming from North Carolina, where Trump’s chances to win the popular vote in a landslide (6% or more) skyrocketed from 3.5% one week ago to becoming the most likely of all outcomes at 19%,” Kalshi’s election blog noted last week.
(Kalshi and its event contracts offer one of the few legal avenues for election wagering in the U.S., as operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel are forbidden from taking action on the race in states with legal sports betting.)
This ain't over
But, with all that said, this thing isn’t over.
The margins are still razor-thin in some states, such as Trump leads of less than a percentage point in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, according to RCP. And, with a little under two weeks to go before the votes are counted, there is time for Harris and the Democrats to claw back support.
There is likewise plenty of time for bettors sitting on the sidelines to make their opinions known and felt on the oddsboard. Betfair's handle for the 2020 race hit around US$260 million on Oct. 28 that year. However, that figure had more than doubled when the election finally concluded.
It’s not unlike wagering on any given week of the National Football League’s regular season. Bets on Sunday games will trickle in throughout the week, but it’s not until Sunday finally rolls around that the bulk of betting can happen.
The public has its say on the NFL — odds can change considerably until the kickoff — and the same sort of bettors could have their say on the 2024 presidential election. So could the “whales” who are starting to surface in election betting markets.
The John King effect
Rosbottom noted that in 2020, Betfair took a million-pound bet on Biden the weekend before Election Day. The biggest bet for the exchange so far this cycle is a £88,000 wager on Harris at even-money, which was placed during the debate in September. The biggest bet for Trump has been a £9,500 wager.
It's an "incredibly volatile market," too, Rosbottom said. In 2020, Biden was the favorite until Florida was announced for Trump, who then became chalk of -400. Then Biden won Georgia, and the odds flipped again to make the Democrat the favorite.
Therefore, the experience of four years ago suggests that there is a huge amount of wagering that will happen on Election Day, especially when the results start to trickle in.
"That's when the market really comes alive,” Rosbottom said.
