Arsenal vs Everton Picks and Predictions: Both Sides Bring the Heat

Arsenal are rightly big favorites against Everton, but their habit of giving up goals at home leaves plenty of value in both teams finding the net Wednesday, as our EPL picks explain.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Mar 1, 2023 • 08:22 ET • 4 min read
Bukayo Saka Arsenal
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Midweek Premier League action? You can count us in. We’re getting a real treat on Wednesday with Arsenal vs Everton. The Gunners need to keep on winning and extend that lead at the top of the Premier League, while Everton look rejuvenated under Sean Dyche.

You won’t want to miss this game, so make sure you take in our Arsenal vs. Everton EPL betting picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 1.

Arsenal vs Everton best odds

Arsenal vs Everton picks and predictions

Thanks to fixture congestion we’ve been treated to a lot of extra Premier League games of late, like this midweek matchup. We’ve got Arsenal vs Everton under the floodlights at the Emirates, with both games battling at different ends of the table.

The visitors head into Wednesday’s game sat 18th in the Premier League table and fighting for survival. They’ve been given a fresh burst of life since Sean Dyche’s arrival at Goodison and have picked up two wins in their past four. They’ll need to be at their best to take anything from the Premier League’s top club, Arsenal, who are two points clear of second place Man City and have this game in hand to further extend their lead. However, there’s reason to think that they might allow the travelling side on the scoresheet, which is why both teams to score is the best bet for this game.

This is only Sean Dyche’s fourth game for Everton, and while they haven’t been free-flowing, they have found the back of the net in half of those games, most notably when they beat Arsenal in Dyche’s first game in charge.

Arsenal have the second-best defensive record in the Premier League, allowing just 23 goals in 24 games, but in recent weeks they’ve not looked as strong as they previously had. They’ve given up 12 goals in the past 10 games since EPL returned after the World Cup. Their form in general isn’t quite as good as it was before the break, but they will be concerned about looking more frail defensively.

The Gunners can be fortunate that Everton’s main striker, Dominic Calvert-Lewin, is absent, but I think that Everton can cause problems for Arsenal, just as they did when the two teams met at the start of February.

Both teams have scored in 81.8% of EPL games at the Emirates this season, and despite Everton likely setting up quite defensively, I think they have enough to score against a team who are giving up chances to visitors. 

It goes without saying that Arsenal should score. They’ve scored 52 goals in the Premier League this year, with only Man City scoring more. And Everton, whilst looking better and far more tactically astute since Dyche’s arrival, have still allowed one goal per game on average during his tenure.

With Arsenal’s impressive goalscoring and dynamic attacking players, and an improved Everton team, we’ll be taking Both Teams to Score at +133 here.

My best bet: Both teams to score (+133 at Unibet)

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Arsenal vs Everton side analysis

Arsenal are heavy favorites, but -280 it isn’t a price I’d go anywhere near. Arsenal should win this game but we’ve seen enough of Everton in those four games under Dyche that we know they’ve improved. To boot, consider that Everton won the reverse of this fixture less than one month ago.

We’ll see Mikel Arteta send out Arsenal in their usual 4-3-3, and it’s likely we’ll see them at full strength here. That means Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka either side of Eddie Nketiah, who starts in place of long-term absentee Gabriel Jesus. The midfield three of Granit Xhaka, Thomas Partey, and Martin Odegaard write themselves. In defense it’s left back Oleksandr Zinchenko who is the real x-factor. Since leaving Man City, he’s shown just why Pep Guardiola loved him so much. He’s added experience and a winner’s mentality to this team, and we’ve seen him push them forward when they’ve really needed it.

For Dyche and Everton, we’re going to see a rear-guard action with the former Burnley manager setting them up in a 4-5-1 with Neal Maupay leading the line. For Everton to get anything out of this, they’ll need the core of the team to be at their best: Abdoulaye Doucoure, Idrissa Gueye and Amadou Onana in the midfield, Conor Coady and James Tarkowski at the back, and Jordan Pickford in goal. If they keep things tight and compact, then they could steal a point, or maybe even three, from this game.

Arsenal vs Everton Over/Under analysis

Given that I’ve backed BTTS as my best bet, it’s obvious that I’d be backing Over 2.5 goals in the total goals market. We’ve seen Over 2.5 goals in 58.3% of Arsenal games in the Premier League, a figure that rises to 81.8% at the Emirates.

In front of a passionate crowd, it’s easy to see Arsenal scoring a couple of goals here, and it wouldn’t be a shock if the incredible Saka scored either, as he continues to blossom into a world-class talent. 

Arsenal vs Everton game info

Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
Date: Wednesday, March 1, 2023
Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock

Arsenal vs Everton key injuries

Arsenal: Gabriel Jesus STR (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out).
Everton: Andros Townsend FWR (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin STR (Out), James Garner CM (Out), Nathan Patterson RB (Out).

Arsenal vs Everton recent form

Teams Last five matches
Arsenal Arsenal L-D-L-W-W
Everton Everton L-W-L-W-L

Arsenal vs Everton weather

A dry day with temperatures around 40 degrees at kickoff. Winds will be slight at 11mph, with a 20% chance of rain. 

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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