Arsenal vs Liverpool Predictions and Picks: Reds Head Into Sunday Undervalued

Liverpool may be the betting dog on Sunday, but we ultimately believe the Reds will have the upper hand in play throughout. Find out why by checking out Sam Farley's latest handicap in our Arsenal vs. Liverpool betting picks.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Jan 6, 2024 • 06:20 ET • 4 min read
Diogo Jota Liverpool EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We have a huge slate of FA Cup games on Sunday, which is headlined by Arsenal vs Liverpool.

It’s the marquee matchup of the third round of the FA Cup, with both clubs meeting while also fighting for the Premier League title against one another. One of England’s biggest clubs will be eliminated here, but who?

Find out in our picks and predictions for Arsenal vs. Liverpool on January 7.

Arsenal vs Liverpool best odds

Brighton & Hove Albion Arsenal Manchester United Liverpool
+108 Moneyline +229
+285 Draw +285
Over 3 (+106) Total Under 3 (-127)

Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 7, 2024.

Arsenal vs Liverpool picks and predictions

It’s only been a couple of weeks since we saw the last meeting between the two clubs, with the scores finishing level at 1-1 after a tensely fought 90 minutes.

Since then, Liverpool has widened their lead over Arsenal by five points in the title race, while Aston Villa and Man City have also become strong contenders. Sunday's match will see players from both teams absent due to international duty for the Asian Cup and African Cup of Nations. How will these factors influence the outcome of the game?

To address the significant issue for Liverpool, we must first consider the unavailable players for this fixture. Long-term absentees include Joel Matip, Thiago, and Andy Robertson, while Mohamed Salah and Wataru Endo are also both away for international duty).

The absence of Endo, in particular, may be underestimated, given his integral role in Liverpool's recent performances. However, the team boasts considerable midfield depth this season. Meanwhile, the remaining forwards in the Liverpool team are highly skilled and more than capable of posing serious threats to cover for Salah's team-leading 14 goals.

Liverpool will field a front three consisting of Diogo Jota, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, and Cody Gakpo. Regardless of the combination, this forward line possesses excellent movement and speed. Despite the discussions surrounding Liverpool's absent players, it can be argued that any forward trio they field is superior to Arsenal's bench option, Eddie Nketiah.

Arsenal currently holds the fourth position in the Premier League, but honestly, they seem to fall short of the form we witnessed last year. While Declan Rice has excelled in the midfield and Bukayo Saka has consistently contributed goals and assists, there's an argument to be made that even Saka appears fatigued.

The influence of Martin Odegaard appears to have waned slightly this season, and there is a realization amongst Arsenal fans that Gabriel Jesus isn’t clinical enough in front of goal to lead the line for a team with Premier League-winning ambitions, something Man City had discovered when they allowed him to move to the Gunners.

Liverpool has conceded just 18 goals in 20 Premier League games, so I can’t fathom why Arsenal isn’t a bigger price to win. Getting +275 on a Liverpool win is a steal here, so take it and run.

My best bet: Liverpool to win (+275 at TonyBet)

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Arsenal vs Liverpool same-game parlay

Liverpool to win

Diogo Jota anytime goalscorer

Alexi Mac Allister to get booked

Liverpool has suffered only one league defeat this season, which occurred at the end of September. In contrast, Arsenal has lost three of its last five league games. Currently, Arsenal is not showcasing its best form, while Liverpool is on a trajectory of getting better as the season progresses. Players like Curtis Jones are performing exceptionally well, sparking discussions about potential international recognition with England.

Next up, we’re going to back Diogo Jota to score. Since his return to the team after Christmas, he has played just 31 minutes coming off the bench, scoring a goal and providing an assist. Jurgen Klopp is likely to include him in the starting lineup, especially with Salah unavailable, and given his current form, he stands as a strong candidate to score.

Finally, we’re backing Liverpool’s Argentine midfielder Alexi Mac Allister to get booked. He’s played 15 times in the Premier League this season, picking up five yellow cards while averaging 1.5 fouls per game. He’s a very good player but isn’t averse to picking up cards and playing a bit dirty.

I'm expecting a physical midfield battle, which should ultimately increase the chances of a Mac Allister card.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Arsenal vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis

There's significant value in betting on Liverpool to win at +275, so that's where I'm placing my wager for Sunday's game. If that doesn't appeal to you, there's also an option at +275 for the game to finish tied, mirroring these two teams' last meeting. 

For those anticipating goals, Over 2.5 is available at -161 with Under 2.5 returning at +130. In the Premier League, Liverpool has seen an exact 50-50 split between Over and Under 2.5 goals in their 10 away games. Meanwhile, 70% of Arsenal's home games have gone Over 2.5 goals.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Arsenal vs Liverpool game info

Location: Emirates Stadium, London, England
Date: Sunday, January 7, 2024
Time: 11:30 a.m. ET
TV: DAZN
Weather: 39F, 0% chance of precipitation, 11 mph winds

Arsenal vs Liverpool key injuries

Arsenal: Fabio Vieira CAM (Out), Thomas Partey CM (Out), Takehiro Tomisayu RB (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), Oleksandr Zinchenko LB (Questionable).

Liverpool: Joel Matip CB (Out), Stefan Bajectic CM (Out), Andy Robertson LB (Out), Thiago CM (Out), Kostas Tsimikas LB (Out), Mohamed Salah RW (Out), Waturo Endo CM (Out).

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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