We have two European giants meeting on Thursday with Netherlands vs France. Both teams started their Euro 2024 campaigns with wins, and a win here would all but secure their spot in the next round.
With no Kylian Mbappe in the lineup for France, can the Dutch take advantage?
Find out in my Euro 2024 picks and Netherlands vs France prediction.
Netherlands vs France picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
France moneyline (+137 at Betano)
My analysis
Friday’s Netherlands vs France game is one of those that was picked out before the tournament as a potential classic and with both teams sat on three points it could be decisive in deciding who wins the group.
There are question marks around the French team. Firstly, the noise around their captain Kylian Mbappe. He broke his nose after an accidental collision with Austrian player Kevin Danso’s shoulder. A trip to the hospital after the game confirmed the injury and he will almost certainly be kept out of the remaining two group-stage games.
France managed to squeeze past Austria 1-0 in what was a really tight game, with both sides having as many shots on target and Austria having more possession. You could look at this as a sign the French are in trouble but given the quality of Austria under Ralf Rangnick it’s probably more accurate to describe it as a professional performance against an underrated and very well-drilled team.
In terms of organization and pressing they are a far better unit than the Netherlands. The Dutch got past Poland 2-1, with the Poles having taken an early lead. Poland only had 34% possession but somehow had 12 shots, seven of which were on target. The Dutch, as good as their defense is on paper, really struggled with Polish counterattacks. Thanks to the Poles scoring early we saw them sit back and challenge the Netherlands to break them down. They eventually did but given just four of their 21 shots hit the target it’s fair to say their attack wasn’t hugely efficient.
Even without Mbappe, France has more than enough quality to break the Dutch down. Marcus Thuram and Ousmane Dembele would likely be joined by Olivier Giroud in attack. A different type of striker to Mbappe but as a focal point he’d be effective.
France’s real stars in the win over Austria were N’Golo Kane and Adrien Rabiot who dominated the midfield battle. If they play anywhere near that level here the Dutch will really struggle.
France also have experience of winning at the highest level and the absence of Mbappe wouldn’t be enough to put them off their stride.
Marcus Thuram odds, prop for today
My best bet
1+ shot on target (-133 at Betano)
My analysis
We’re going to see a lot of Marcus Thuram on Friday, with Mbappe out of the lineup. The Inter star started on the left side of France’s attack in the win over Austria and frequently found himself getting into the box.
He had more shots, five, than anybody else on the pitch, and two of those finished on target, again more than anybody else on the field. We’re going to back him to get at least one on target here, which feels very possible given how much he was involved previously.
Netherlands vs France same-game parlay (SGP)
France moneyline
Marcus Thuram 1+ shot on target
Under 2.5 goals
In addition to our best bet for the game and our Marcus Thuram best bet, we’re going to also back Under 2.5 goals. The French were strong defensively against Austria, limiting them to just six shots in total and given the quality in their backline they’ll be hopeful of keeping the Dutch to minimal chances. With both teams having defensive quality and both teams likely playing more conservatively against one another, this has the potential to be a tight game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Netherlands vs France odds
| Netherlands | France | |
|---|---|---|
| +235 | Moneyline | +137 |
| Over 2.5 (-102) | Total | Under 2.5 (-118) |
| +137 | Draw | +230 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-19.
Netherlands vs France game info
| Location: | Leipzig Stadium, Leipzig, Germany |
| Date: | Friday, June 21, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 70c with scattered thunderstorms |
Not intended for use in MA.
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