Tuesday sees the first of the two Euro 2024 semifinals with Spain vs. France, with the winner earning a place in the final. Spain have been the team of the tournament up until this point, while France, one of the favorites, have struggled to get going.
Get stuck into my Spain vs. France predictions and Euro 2024 picks for July 9.
Spain vs France picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Both teams to score (-102 at Betano)
My analysis
The Euro 2024 final in Berlin is now in sight for all four remaining teams, but first they need to secure their passage by winning their semifinal.
This Tuesday we’re treated to a matchup of two of the most successful teams in Europe in recent years, Spain and France. France came into this tournament as narrow second-favorites behind England but have really struggled to reach the expectations set for them.
That can’t be said for Spain, who have been the neutrals’ pick, playing with style and panache and looking like the best team in the competition. Given how well they’ve been playing in comparison with the four remaining teams, you’d be forgiven for expecting them to win but this sport rarely cares for your expectations. France have a wealth of experience at this level of international competition and that could well be what this comes down to.
For our best bet, we’ll avoid picking a team and focus on a market that looks like real value, backing both teams to score at -102.
It's easy to see why Spain will score, as they’ve managed to find the back of the net in every single game so far, winning all five and scoring two or more goals in 60% of their games up until this point. While Alvaro Morata hasn’t been firing in goals, it doesn’t matter with the pace of Nico Williams and Yamine Lamal around him, especially with a midfield behind him capable of scoring.
That brings us to France. This is a team who have failed to score from open play so far at Euro 2024, with their three goals coming from two own goals and a Kylian Mbappe penalty. It’s one of the stats that has shocked everyone but it’s worth remembering that they’ve had a hard route to this point, with Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, and Austria all very good opponents, with Poland perhaps the only poor team they’ve faced.
Spain kept three clean sheets in the group stages but it’s been a different story in the knockout rounds, where they’ve given up goals to Germany and Georgia. This France team have real quality in the attacking positions and the Spanish team is shakier than some, so we should see both teams score on Tuesday.
Kylian Mbappe odds, prop for today
My best bet
Kylian Mbappe 4+ shots (+125 at Betano)
My analysis
Again, France — and their star forward — have struggled to finish in open play, but it's not like Mbappe hasn't been assertive, with at least four shot attempts in all four of his matches at this year's Euro, with 16 total looks toward goal in his last three outings alone.
Les Bleus have been able to hunker down on the defensive end, truly leaning into their "Blue Bunker" moniker, but with the quality and form that Spain has at the moment, France may finally be pushed to take a more offensive approach.
That means we should see more of the French 10 pressing the play, especially with defenders Dani Carvajal and Robin Le Normand — who both normally line up on Mbappe's side — suspended.
If you want to get really spicy, 5+ shot attempts is available at +275, but I'm still quite content at taking plus-money here for a very attainable number.
Spain vs France same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score
France to qualify
Kylian Mbappe to score
In addition to our best bet, we’ll back the French to qualify. As poor as France have been at times in this tournament, they have a far higher ceiling than Spain. They also have a defense that is far superior, giving up just one goal up to this point. Combine a great defense with four incredible players in front of one of the world’s best keepers, and they’ll be hard to beat. Combine that with their experience and that challenge gets even tougher.
We’re also going to back Kylian Mbappe to score. He’s only got the one goal at Euro 2024 and it came from the penalty spot, and people have said that he can’t play well wearing the mask. That’s a naïve take and a player of his quality will always get his sooner or later. His speed could destroy Spain, and he should have the better of his future Real Madrid teammate Dani Carvajal.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Spain vs France odds
| Spain | France | |
|---|---|---|
| +162 | Moneyline | +215 |
| Over 2.5 (+150) | Total | Under 2.5 (-189) |
| +185 | Draw | +185 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-8.
Spain vs France game info
| Location: | Allianz Arena, Munich, Germany |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 9, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 87F, 9 mph winds, 10% PoP, if roof is open. |
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