Two European giants meet at the San Siro with Inter Milan hosting Arsenal.
Read more in my Champions League free betting picks for Wednesday, November 6, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Inter Milan vs Arsenal picks and predictions
My best bet:
Under 2.5 (+160 at TonyBet)
My analysis
With Arsenal struggling for form, this very much feels like a game the Gunners must survive.
After slumping to a 1-0 defeat to Newcastle on Saturday, we’ve seen this poor spell of form for Arsenal. They’ve now won just two of their last five games in all competitions and, incredibly, just one of their previous five games on the road.
To make matters worse, that victory came against Championship side Preston in the League Cup. They're really struggling to play at the level we’ve seen from them across the past two seasons.
Their defensive record hasn’t been the best in recent weeks but that’s largely down to suspensions and injuries at the back. They’re still a hugely capable unit, but the biggest issue has been how toothless they’ve looked going forward. They really miss Martin Odegaard, and with every game, it’s becoming more and more clear just how important he is to the coherence of their attack.
Without the Norwegian dictating play and setting up attacks, they look devoid of creativity. They’re struggling to break down teams who are defending deep against them. The worst part of their 1-0 loss to Newcastle is that despite chasing the lead and Newcastle sitting incredibly deep, it didn’t feel like Arsenal would ever score. Without Odegaard, they’ve lost the key that helps them unlock defenses.
This ultimately means two things for Mikel Arteta and Arsenal. Firstly, they’re not as good in attack, so they're likely to score fewer goals. Secondly, it means that Arteta needs to set this team up to keep clean sheets.
They’ve always been good defensively under him, but now it’s even more important to go into this game with that mindset because they can’t afford to get into a shootout. They lack the firepower to win.
Inter are second in Serie A and scoring just below 2.5 goals per game themselves. That’s an incredible record and it’s helping them get away with a defense that’s giving up more than a goal per game.
Inter might have the majority of possession, but, likely, they won’t flood Arsenal until later in the game, with both teams happy to play safe, at least in the first half. That’s the perfect environment for this Under 2.5 to land.
Inter Milan vs Arsenal same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 2.5
Draw
Inter Milan to have the most corners
While Inter are playing well, they aren’t as good of a team as Arsenal when they’re playing well. Mikel Arteta will look to keep things tight and rely on that Gunners defense to keep the game close. That could mean the game ends in a draw, a result which wouldn’t be catastrophic to either club.
The final leg is a bet on Inter to have the most corners. They’re attacking well domestically, and given Arsenal’s form and playing on the road, we’re likely to see them content to sit back at times and counter Inter, which should lead to the Italians winning the corners battle.
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Inter Milan vs Arsenal odds
Inter Milan vs Arsenal live odds
Inter Milan vs Arsenal opening odds
- Moneyline: Inter Milan +165 | Arsenal +165
- Draw: +210
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-120) | Under 2.5 (-105)
Inter Milan vs Arsenal side and Over/Under analysis
- Inter Milan are unbeaten over their last eight games. Arsenal have won just two of their last five games.
- 60% of Arsenal’s league games have stayed Under 2.5.
- When they last met in a competitive game, back in 2003, Arsenal won 5-1 at the San Siro.
Inter Milan vs Arsenal game info
| Location: | San Siro, Milan, Italy |
| Date: | Wednesday, 11-6-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Weather: | Cloudy. |
Inter Milan vs Arsenal key injuries
Inter Milan: Carlos Augusto DEF (Out)
Arsenal: Martin Odegaard CAM (Out), Kieran Tierney LB (Out), Takehiro Tomiyasu DEF (Out), Riccardo Calafiori DEF (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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