Liverpool vs Leverkusen Predictions & Picks for Tuesday’s Champions League Match

Arne Slot has worked some tactical magic with Liverpool across all competitions this year, and with Bayer Leverkusen still nursing a bit of a championship hangover, our soccer betting picks expect the Reds to prevail on Tuesday.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Nov 4, 2024 • 11:14 ET • 4 min read
Mo Salah Liverpool
Photo By - Imagn Images. Pictured: Mo Salah

Two teams who are unbeaten in Europe so far this season meet at Anfield as Liverpool host Bayer Leverkusen.

The German side might be unbeaten in 11 games but so are Liverpool, and my Liverpool vs. Bayer Leverkusen predictions expect Arne Slot’s team to win and secure three points.

Find out more in my free betting picks for Tuesday, November 5, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Liverpool vs Leverkusen picks and predictions

My best bet:
Liverpool moneyline (-141 at TonyBet)

My analysis

Tuesday’s most interesting Champions League game sees Liverpool host Bayer Leverkusen. Leverkusen are fourth in Bundesliga but are reigning champions, and they’re an excellent team even if they aren’t quite at the unstoppable level of last season.

Meanwhile, Liverpool are two points atop of the Premier League and look formidable under new manager Arne Slot.

Their excellent performances are one of the key reasons that I'm backing Liverpool to win here, despite the Merseyside club being heavy favorites. The odds of -141 aren’t huge but it feels like the best way to tackle this game.

There are a number of reasons for Liverpool’s success this season.

It was probably wise to not bring in too many new signings, so the core of the team is similar to the side that Jurgen Klopp left. The second has been Slot himself, who has shown that he’s one of the best tacticians in the game. He’s tweaked Liverpool from a team who set up more often in a 4-3-3 formation, to one which can dominate possession in a 4-2-3-1. 

That formation should give us a fascinating matchup with Xabi Alonso’s team, who use a 3-4-2-1. With both teams capable of dominating possession, it’s going to be interesting to see how they can adapt when not doing so. 

Recent results tell us that Liverpool are the team to beat here. They have won 10 of their last 11 games, with the other game being a 2-2 draw against title rivals Arsenal. That was a big point for Liverpool and showed they can match the best teams on the planet. They’ve also gotten past good domestic teams in Chelsea and Brighton in recent weeks, as well as winning all three of their Champions League games.

Liverpool are creating a lot of chances and they’ve scored nearly two per game in the Champions League, although their xG says they’re a little unlucky to be under that two-goal mark. We’ve seen Mohamed Salah back to his very best, with 12 goal contributions across his 10 league games, and arguably playing better than anybody else in the country.

They’ve also been fantastic defensively, which is even more impressive given that first choice keeper Alisson Becker is out injured and his deputy Caoimhin Kelleher has been starting in his place. They’ve given up just one goal in three Champions League outings following a slow start at San Siro, and have the Premier League’s best defense with just six goals allowed.

Liverpool are playing at an incredible level, they’re strong at the back, and have Salah, currently the best player in England. In front of their home crowd, they should be able to take down a Leverkusen team who are suffering from second season syndrome after their fantastic 2023-24 campaign. 

Liverpool vs Leverkusen same-game parlay (SGP)

Liverpool moneyline

Mohamed Salah to score

Both Teams to Score - No

In addition to my best bet, I’m also going to back Salah to score. He’s been in great form this season with nine goals to his name in all competitions. He’s fresh from scoring against Brighton this past weekend in their 2-1 win.

Our final leg in the same-game parlay is for both teams not to score. Liverpool have the best defensive record in the Premier League, allowing just six goals in 10 games, while they’ve kept clean sheets in their past two Champions League games. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Not available in Ontario.

Liverpool vs Leverkusen odds

Liverpool vs Leverkusen live odds

Liverpool vs Leverkusen opening odds

  • Moneyline: Liverpool -141 | Leverkusen +350
  • Draw: +330
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Liverpool vs Leverkusen side and Over/Under analysis

  • Liverpool are unbeaten in 11 games, having won 10 of them. 
  • Leverkusen are unbeaten in 11 games, although they’ve picked up five draws.
  • Both Liverpool and Leverkusen have conceded just one goal in three Champions League games.
  • Both Liverpool and Leverkusen have seen only one of three Champions League games have Over 2.5 goals.

Liverpool vs Leverkusen game info

Location: Anfield, Liverpool, England
Date: Tuesday, 11-5-2024
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: Paramount+
Weather: 54F, 8 mph winds, 10% PoP.

Liverpool vs Leverkusen key injuries

Liverpool: Harvey Elliott CM (Out), Alisson Becker GK (Out), Federico Chiesa FWR (Out), Diogo Jota FWR (Out), Ibrahima Konate CB (Questionable).
Leverkusen: Jeanuel Belocian DEF (Out), Amine Adli FWR (Out), Martine Terrier CAM (Questionable), Nordi Mukiele RB (Questionable).

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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