Leeds vs Manchester United Picks and Predictions: Pogba and the Art of Starting Fast

These two old rivals haven’t had the seasons that they’d have wanted but that won’t stop Sunday’s game from being a tough-tackling, passionate battle. When Leeds plays Manchester United, there are always fireworks.

There’s no love lost between these teams and this is a game that both sets of fans will be desperate to win. Don’t miss our Leeds vs. Man Utd tips and predictions.

Leeds vs Manchester United match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Leeds vs Manchester United betting tips

• Prediction: Manchester United (-118)
• Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-163)
• Best bet: Manchester United halftime/fulltime (+200)

Predictions made on 2/17/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Leeds vs Manchester United game info

• Location: Elland Road, Leeds, England
• Date: Sunday, February 20, 2022
• Time: 9:00 a.m. ET
• TV: USA Network, DAZN

Leeds vs Manchester United betting preview

Weather

There’s going to be torrential rain in the build-up to this game and the surface will be very wet by the time the game kicks off. Temperatures will be in the mid-50s but the sold-out crowd at Elland Road will be dressed for a storm, both on and off the pitch.

Injuries

Leeds: Kevin Phillips DM (Out), Patrick Bamford CF (Out).
Manchester United: Eric Bailly CB (Out), Nemanja Matic DM (Out), Edinson Cavani CF (Out).

Leeds vs Manchester United predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

Leeds United welcome Manchester United to Elland Road on Sunday in the latest edition of one of the most passionate derbies in the English game. Often referred to as the Pennines Derby due to the series of hills between the two cities, it’s a derby steeped in history. Rivalries between the counties of Lancashire and Yorkshire have been strong since the War of the Roses in the 15th century, long before either of these clubs were founded.

We see two clubs who’ll be looking at the Premier League table and be disappointed. The return of Cristiano Ronaldo and the signings of Raphael Varane and Jadon Sancho were meant to propel United back into the race for the Premier League title but instead, they entered the weekend a full 20 points behind their cross-city rivals. The dream of lifting the title again has long dissipated and now they’re in a battle to seal a place in the Top 4 to gain qualification to the Champions League next year.

Leeds also expected more from this campaign and find themselves looking over their shoulders at teams in relegation spots rather than looking toward anything else. A series of injuries and a busy fixture list in the winter hit Leeds harder than anybody due to Marco Bielsa’s insistence on a smaller squad. Having a small core group of players is part of his philosophy, so it’s hard to feel that much sympathy, but it’s undeniably hit the team.

When these two meet on Sunday for the 112th time, there’ll almost certainly be a large percentage of people betting on Leeds or the draw. That’s understandable given Man United’s recent performances in which they’ve struggled to look good for a whole game. One issue manager Ralf Rangnick has identified is the fitness of his players. He argues they’re not fit enough to play his pressing style, which often leads them to start games well and struggle as they reach the latter stages of the match. It’s an interesting theory and one that passes the eye test when you watch them play. It’s also well worth remembering that Liverpool too had similar issues when Jurgen Klopp joined the club and installed ‘gegenpressing.’ Even a look at Sunday’s opponents Leeds’ early results under Bielsa will show you that physically demanding style takes time for players to get used to.

Even with those question marks over Man United’s recent performances, you have to consider that this team has performed brilliantly against Leeds over the past two seasons. Since Leeds returned to the Premier League, they’ve earned one point from a possible nine and lost 5-1 and 6-2 in addition to a 0-0 draw.

With Rangnick likely picking Jadon Sancho and Marcus Rashford on either side of Ronaldo, they’ll be fearsome on the counter, especially with Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba in behind. Pogba has looked brilliant since returning from injury and it’s a real shame that the club is unlikely to keep him beyond his summer with his contract winding down. For all of the criticism of Pogba — much of it deserved — there simply aren’t many players better when he’s at his best. With the potential of a huge contract at a new club on the line, I expect him to have a brilliant remainder of the season.

With Leeds still missing Patrick Bamford and Kalvin Phillips, it’s going to be tough for them to beat Manchester United. And despite everything going on at Old Trafford, they are rightly still favorites and should be backed here. They haven’t been beaten in their last six on the road in the league and should be able to return to Manchester with three points.

Prediction: Manchester United (-118)

Over/Under analysis

One thing we can expect is scoring. In the past three meetings since Leeds returned to the Premier League, we’ve seen 14 goals. Leeds' gung-ho style of play has seen 54.5% of home games finishing with Over 2.5 goals. Not only that, but Over 2.5 goals has landed in eight of Leeds past nine games home and away in the Premier League.

Man United aren’t great defensively either, conceding at least one goal in five of their past seven games across all competitions. Their defenders often find themselves pushing up the pitch, which does leave them susceptible to opposition attacks. Backing the Over seems the smart bet here. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 goals (-163)

Best bet

As mentioned earlier, one constant of Rangnick’s United team is an inability to play at the same level for 90 minutes, with fitness an issue. They’ve generally started well, with recent performances against Brighton and Middlesbrough evidence of that. 

With Pogba likely to be back in the starting lineup and facing a Leeds side that struggles with United’s pace, I’m expecting another fast start for the Red Devils. When these two teams met in August, United started quickly and took a lead into halftime and I’m expecting to see that happen again. We saw Leeds concede twice to Everton in the first half on the weekend. Prior to that, they’d shipped three goals to Aston Villa before the halftime whistle blew too.

Leeds have given up a first half goal in four of their past five in all competitions, only failing to do so when facing relegation candidates Newcastle. Back Man United to start fast and maintain that lead until the end of the game.

Pick: Manchester United halftime/fulltime (+200)

Pages related to this topic