Man City vs Inter Milan Champions League Final Picks and Predictions: Unstoppable City Seal Treble Win

Today will see the biggest game in club soccer — the Champions League final between Manchester City and Inter Milan.

Both teams have been in the final of this competition before, but that counts for nothing on Saturday, with both teams and sets of supporters desperate to lift the trophy.

Man City are strong favorites (and with good reason), but can Inter cause an upset and take the Champions League trophy back to Milan? Don’t miss our Manchester City vs. Inter free betting picks and predictions for the Champions League final.

Man City vs Inter Milan best odds

Man City vs Inter Milan predictions 

On Saturday, we have Man City vs. Inter in the Champions League final. It’s the showpiece game in the club season and arguably the biggest and most important match we’ll see in 2023. It’s crazy to call this a David vs Goliath encounter, especially when Inter have three European Cups to their name, but in many ways it is. Pep Guardiola is the greatest coach of this era and this Manchester City team might be his best side yet — without Lionel Messi at least.

Despite the greatness of Guardiola he hasn’t lifted a Champions League trophy since 2011, failing to do so at Bayern Munich and failing, so far at least, at Man City. His Man City team lost to Chelsea at this stage two years ago and he’s almost out-thought himself at various other stages of the competitions. Given the quality he has, and has had, at his disposal, he simply needs to win this, and I’m very confident he will.

My best bet for Man City vs Inter focuses on the result itself and I’m backing Man City -1 at +128. You simply can’t get good value on the moneyline, with Man City at -210, but if you take the one-goal handicap then I think there’s some value to be had. 

Inter won the Champions League back in 2010, reaching that stage after defeating Guardiola’s Barcelona via a historically defensive and negative semi-final second leg. I can’t help but feel they’ll need to match that effort in order to get one over on Man City here.

It would be foolish to underestimate Inter, and they’ve shown they’re a good team on their journey to reach the Champions League final in Istanbul. They qualified from a group consisting of them, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona. However, they did lose both games to Bayern Munich, a team that Man City smashed on the way to reaching this final. In the knockouts, they played Porto, Benfica, and then AC Milan. All good teams, but not at the level of RB Leipzig, Bayern Munich, and Real Madrid, all teams that Man City have beaten on their way here.

If we look at both clubs’ domestic seasons, then it’s easy to see that Man City have had a better season. Both won cups, with Man City lifting the FA Cup and Inter beating Fiorentina to win the Coppa Italia. In their respective leagues, it was different though, Inter finished third, a full 18 points behind winners Napoli. They gave up 42 goals in 38 games and scored 71 times. On the other hand, Man City won the Premier League, scoring 94 goals and conceding just 33 times, less than once a game. Given the relative difference in strength between the Premier League and Serie A, that should be a concern for Inter backers.

The Champions League has also seen Man City outperform Inter. We can talk about schedules all we want but they don’t directly correlate, but it’s worth noting that Man City have scored 31 goals in the competition, more than anybody else, with Inter scoring just 19 times on their way to the final. City have averaged four extra shots per game than Inter and they’ve had an average of 61% possession in their games, while Inter have failed to dominate games, with just 45%.

It's always hard to predict one-off games, but Man City really should win this, and given the quality that they’ve displayed all season long it’s a match that they should win by multiple goals. I’d really recommend Man City -1 at +128 but I’d also recommend a small wager on Man City -2 at +340.

Manchester City are the best football team in a generation and, having waited years to win the Champions League, a trophy they truly covet, Saturday will see them earn their crowning achievement, winning a famous treble and showcasing why they’re the best team on the planet.

My best bet: Man City -1 (+128 at Unibet)

Man City vs Inter Milan same-game parlay

Man City to win by 2+ goals

Denzel Dumfries to get booked

Erling Haaland to score anytime

+650 at bet365

We have a seriously tasty same-game parlay for Man City vs Inter too, with a big +650 return, something suitable for any game as big as a Champions League final.

First up, we’ll be following our best bet and backing Guardiola’s team to win by two or more goals, which is the same as a -1 handicap. I’m fully expecting Man City to dominate the game, choking Inter with possession and putting them to the sword when they get chances in front of goal.

Man City’s dominance will frustrate the Italian team and I’m expecting to see plenty of bookings. We’ve seen a combined 21 cards in the two European finals in the past two weeks so we know that these big games can often lead to frustration and foul play. Saturday’s referee Szymon Marciniak isn’t afraid of booking players either, averaging 4.42 yellows per game this season.

I’m excepting a number of Inter cards, but it’s Denzel Dumfries that I fancy the most. Dumfries will be right wing-back against Jack Grealish, a player who is a magnet for fouls. He has natural attacking instincts but Inter will need him to track back and stop the threat of Grealish. I think there’s a serious chance he ends up in the book here.

Then to finish off the bet, we have Erling Haaland to score anytime. This shouldn’t need much explaining, but the big Norwegian has bagged 52 goals for Manchester City this season including 12 goals in just 10 Champions League games. He’s the man for the big occasion and Inter will be terrified of his threat.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Man City vs Inter Milan side and Over/Under analysis

In terms of moneyline, it won’t be a surprise to know that I’m backing Man City to win, but again, I’d suggest there’s more value in backing them on the spread than on the moneyline.

Backing them on the spread also implies I’m expecting plenty of goals, and I see this one going Over 2.5 goals with ease — I think there’s a strong chance that Man City alone score three or more times.

Domestic form doesn’t come into a European Cup final often but the fact Man City have had Over 2.5 goals in 65.8% of their Premier League games this season, with Inter seeing 57.9% of games also hitting Over 2.5 goals in Serie A, should give you confidence that we’ll see a high scoring game in Istanbul on Saturday.

Man City vs Inter Milan game info

Man City vs Inter Milan key injuries

Man City: Kyle Walker RB (Questionable).
Inter Milan: Henrik Mkhitaryan FWR (Questionable), Joaquin Correa AMC (Questionable).

Man City vs Inter Milan weather

It’ll be hot in Istanbul with temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff and slight clouds. Winds will be minimal at 4mph, with a humidity index in the 60% range. 

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