Manchester City vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: City Shoot Down the Gunners

Arsenal need points to escape the relegation zone, but beating Man City isn't something that history or their current form suggests will happen — find out why with our Manchester City vs Arsenal picks.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Aug 25, 2021 • 12:18 ET • 4 min read
Raheem Sterling EPL Manchester City
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

We’re only two games into the Premier League betting season but the alarm bells are ringing in North London with Arsenal sitting in the relegation zone after two defeats to newcomers Brentford and Champions League winners Chelsea. Pressure is mounting for manager Mikel Arteta with only one team, Norwich, below them in the table.

Now Arsenal have to travel to face last season’s Premier League champions, Manchester City, who haven’t started brilliantly either. This already looks like a very big game for both teams. Check out our Man City vs. Arsenal tips and predictions.

Manchester City vs Arsenal game info

Location: City of Manchester Stadium, Manchester, England
Date: Saturday, August 28, 2021
Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
TV: Peacock

Manchester City vs Arsenal betting tips

  • Man City (-450)
  • Man City/Man City – Halftime/Fulltime (-125)

Read on for complete analysis

Manchester City vs Arsenal match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

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Manchester City vs Arsenal betting preview

Weather

A lunchtime kick-off in Manchester with temperatures in the low 60s and barely any wind, which should suit Pep Guardiola’s men.

Injuries

Manchester City: Kevin De Bruyne MF (Out), Phil Foden LW (Out)
Arsenal: Ben White CB (Out), Eddie Nkeitah CF (Out), Gabriel CB (Out), Thomas Partey DM (Out)

Manchester City vs Arsenal predictions

Side pick

It’s been a tough few years for Arsenal fans. It wasn’t that long ago that they were one of the best teams on the planet, with stars like Thierry Henry and Patrick Vieira. Things move quickly in the Premier League though and over the past few seasons, they’ve gone from feared title challengers to a laughing stock.

While Arsenal have slowly turned into a meme, we’ve seen Man City rise to the top of the Premier League on an influx of oil money. One thing you can’t deny is the brilliance of Pep Guardiola, with Man City’s manager doing an incredible job of identifying talent and coaching them to greatness.

However, we have seen Man City start slow, losing 1-0 to Tottenham on the opening day, but they rebounded in style, putting five goals past Norwich last weekend. They’re still lethal in front of goal, despite missing out on the signing of Harry Kane and they come into this game as big favorites, with odds of -450 implying an 81.8 percent chance that they get three points on Saturday.

Arsenal meanwhile are in crisis. A 6-0 League Cup victory over West Brom on Wednesday doesn’t make up for their dreadful start, in which they lost 2-0 to Premier League new-boys Brentford and lost 2-0 to Chelsea as they were ripped apart by Romelu Lukaku. In fact, their League Cup performance could be a problem, with such a short turnaround from Wednesday night and the early kick-off on Saturday.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s hat-trick against West Brom should see him installed into the starting XI to face Man City and his pace could cause Ruben Dias and Aymeric Laporte problems, even with Kyle Walker at right back. Arsenal are +1,200 to pull off a shock win and those odds are almost appealing. Martin Odegaard, Emile Smith-Rowe and Bukayo Saka offer speed and guile going forward and I can see Arsenal scoring here, but it’s still the defense that is their Achilles heel. They’ve averaged 2 goals conceded per game in the Premier League this season and Rob Holding and Calum Chambers are not the answer to their defensive woes.

You have to remember that Arsenal have lost five in a row at the City of Manchester Stadium and City have won 10 of their past 11 games against the Londoners in all competitions. Despite those alluring +1,200 odds you just can’t in all faith bet it when the stats are against you. Backing Man City at -450 won’t get you massive profits, but it’s the smartest wager on the board.

PICK: Man City (-450)

Halftime/fulltime pick

If you’re looking to back Man City and -450 odds are a little too short for your taste, then the halftime/fulltime market offers huge value at odds of -125. 

It’s a small sample size, but in both of Arsenal’s Premier League games this season they’ve started slow, conceding 75 percent of their goals in the first half: One against Brentford and two against Chelsea. 

Man City may not have scored in their defeat to Spurs, but in last weekend’s game against Norwich they were comfortably 2-0 up at the break. With an attack consisting of Riyad Mahrez, Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling and £100m signing Jack Grealish, they have a real ability to create and finish goal-scoring opportunities. They’ve been clinical in front of goal so far this season with more goals than their xG indicates they should have scored.

Guardiola’s team should start this game strong and continue their great record against Arsenal. As mentioned above, they’ve beaten Arsenal in 10 of the past 11 games between the teams, but crucially, they’ve been winning at both halftime and full-time in 9 of those 11 games.

Backing Man City to be winning at halftime and full-time looks like a no-brainer, the stats back it up, as do Arsenal’s performances on the pitch.

PICK: Man City/Man City – Halftime/Fulltime (-125)

Where can I bet on Premier League soccer?

You can bet on Premier League soccer at most online sportsbooks and mobile apps. Find the best sportsbooks in your region to bet on Premier League soccer odds.

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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