With a 2-0 aggregate advantage in their pocket, Serie A leaders Napoli hope to secure their place in the quarterfinals of the Champions League when they host Frankfurt on Wednesday evening.
Napoli are looking to reach the last eight of the Champions League for the first time in club history, while the visitors have to try to dig out of a giant hole without their star striker and without any fan support.
Can Frankfurt defeat the odds and pull off a stunning upset, or will Napoli continue to roll over everything in sight? Find out in our Napoli vs. Eintracht Frankfurt picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 15.
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt best odds
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt picks and predictions
Despite playing at home, Frankfurt managed just one shot on target over the course of the first leg. That came eight minutes from time and was a tame effort, easily stopped by Napoli keeper Alex Maret. He’s expected to return after being injured in warmups last week before their win over Atalanta, anchoring a defense that has blanked two of their last three opponents at home.
In fact, Stadio Maradona has been a fortress this year for Napoli. Their 1-0 defeat to Lazio last weekend was just their second defeat at home all season, and just the third time in 17 matches they’ve even dropped points.
As if things weren’t difficult enough for the visitors, they will have to try to get a win in a tough environment without two key factors. First, they will not have any traveling fan support. Napoli cited safety reasons for trying to prevent Frankfurt supporters from obtaining tickets, so now the entire fanbase is boycotting the match.
On the pitch, they will be without the services of Randal Kolo Muani. Frankfurt’s star striker has 16 goals and 10 assists through 32 matches in all competitions, but he will be suspended for the match after receiving a straight red in the first leg. It’s a big loss for a side already reeling, having won just one of their last six matches with three defeats in that span.
Frankfurt have scored only five goals in their five away matches post-World Cup, and Muani has scored four of them. Without their star man or any backing from traveling fans, it’s hard to see a way through to goal for a side that will be cognizant of the threat Napoli poses going forward.
Take the home side to keep a clean sheet as they win and claim their spot in the last eight of the Champions League.
My best bet: Napoli to win to nil (+150 at bet365)
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Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt side analysis
Napoli have won 14 of the 17 matches they’ve played at home this season, including all three of their Champions League fixtures. They should have Meret back in goal and, more importantly, star defender Kim Min-Jae should be back as well.
Frankfurt’s wing-backs are going to have to pull back a bit to help defend against Napoli’s pace, making their 3-4-2-1 formation a bit less attack-minded. They will need to find goals from another source with Muani out, a task that won’t be easy considering his teammates have scored just three goals of their own during their recent six-match run of bad form. They’ve also failed to win any of their last six away matches.
Given the circumstances, it makes sense that Napoli are prohibitive favorites. Outside of a parlay piece, the 3-way moneyline isn’t worth playing for this match unless you believe Frankfurt will get some sort of result.
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt Over/Under analysis
The total is already juiced towards the Over, with most books offering the Over 2.5 at -145 or higher. Napoli’s 17 home matches this season have featured at least three goals on all but five occasions, although the last two outings have both gone Under the number. Only nine of the 17 matches have seen both teams finding the back of the net.
As for Frankfurt, they’ve seen a fair amount of Overs in part due to their defensive struggles. They’ve managed just nine clean sheets in 37 matches this campaign, as five of their last eight matches have seen three or more goals scored. Their last three away tilts have each hit the Over, as have eight of their last 12.
The first leg went Under but not for lack of trying, as Napoli had an xG of nearly 3.0 on their own. Frankfurt will have to push a bit more than they’d like to try to get an early goal, and that will likely lead to goals early.
The first-half Over might be the best way to attack, but I’d avoid the Under completely for the match.
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt game info
| Location: | Stadio San Paolo, Naples, Italy |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 15, 2023 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Paramount+ |
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt key injuries
Napoli: Hirving Lozano F (Doubtful), Giacomo Raspadori F (Out), Alex Meret GK (Probable), Kim Min-Jae D (Probable).
Frankfurt: Randal Kolo Muani F (Out), Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe F (Out), Jesper Lindstrom F (Out).
Napoli vs Eintracht Frankfurt weather
Rain earlier in the day should be cleared out by kickoff, but fans and players will still have a soggy leadup to proceedings. Temperatures at kickoff should be in the upper 40s, and wind gusts of 25 mph may impact the match.
