Napoli vs Lazio Picks and Predictions: League Leaders Put Forth Another Complete Performance

The Serie A title race is beginning to turn into a formality for Napoli, and they'll look to extend their lead on the pack when they do battle with rivals Lazio on Friday.

The Roman-based side sits in fourth place, holding onto a Champions League spot by just one point ahead of their bitter rivals Roma.

However, Lazio sit 20 points behind league-leading Napoli, who head into the final 14 matches of the season with an 18-point advantage over Inter Milan and can clinch the scudetto by securing 22 of a possible 42 points – and even fewer if Inter drop points. 

With both teams navigating European competition as well, both teams will want to get a result. Find out how that benefits you in our Napoli vs Lazio free betting picks for Friday, March 3 below. 

Napoli vs Lazio odds

Napoli vs Lazio picks and predictions

Napoli are one of the hottest teams in the continent, having won eight straight in Serie A. They’ve dropped points in just three of their 24 league fixtures thus far, and only Inter have managed to take all three points off the side. 

Friday will see them return home to Stadio Maradona for the first time since before Valentine’s Day, a venue where they’ve lost just once this season – a Coppa Italia penalty shootout defeat in mid-January. In their 11 home tilts in league play, only Lecce have taken points off the league leaders via a 1-1 draw in August.

Not only are Gil Azzurri winning, but they’re also doing it in style. Seven of Napoli’s 11 home Serie A matches have featured three or more goals for the hosts, and they’ve also led at halftime in seven of those matches. That includes each of the three since the World Cup, where they’ve outscored Juventus, Roma, and Cremonese by a combined 10-2 scoreline.

Lazio will be hoping to spoil their rival’s march to the title. Winners of three of its last four, Maurizio Sarri’s side is enjoying an uptick in form after a four-match winless spell. However, they’ve been eking out those wins behind a stingy defense that has made up for a toothless attack. 

Lazio have just four goals in their last five matches while having kept four consecutive clean sheets. Their 19 goals allowed this season are the second-fewest in the league – behind only their opponents this weekend. 

Napoli’s last seven matches across all competitions have seen them leading at halftime six times, with all of those turning into victories.

They’ve also led at both halftime and full time in four of their last five home clashes with Lazio, outscoring their rivals 9-1 before the intermission. When you run that out to Serie A play, they’ve led at the end of both 45-minute sessions in seven of the last eight.

Gil Azzurri likes to jump on their opponents early, and they’re likely to do so against a Lazio team that isn’t scoring a whole lot and will be without one center back for this fixture and possibly two. 

So what do you get when you put an aggressive, high-powered attack against a side that's struggling to score goals? You get a strong chance at a half-time/full-time winner.

Take the hosts to get that first-half goal they desire, and to be leading each time the referee calls a halt to proceedings. 

My best bet: Napoli half-time/full-time (+150 at bet365)

Napoli vs Lazio side analysis

The home side in this rivalry has won seven of the last 10 meetings, with no draws taking place. If that trend continues, then it’ll reward bettors who play the heavily-juiced 3-way line.

Napoli are favored at a price of around -170, with a draw paying nearly three times your wager and a Lazio win bumping that to five times your stake.

Napoli are unbeaten in their last eight matches in Serie A play and have defeated Lazio in six straight at home. They’ve also not allowed a goal in their last four league tilts and have dropped points at home just once in 11 league matches. They'll be without Mario Rui, with the left back getting a straight red at the weekend.

Lazio will be without Nicolo Casale due to a yellow-card accumulation ban and Alessio Romagnoli will be questionable heading into the fixture, leaving them thin at the back.

That could be trouble for the side and could put their four-match unbeaten run in jeopardy. Lazio haven’t been poor away from home, with six wins and three draws through 11 matches, but their last away trip against a quality side was a 3-0 loss at Juventus. 

Napoli vs Lazio Over/Under analysis

Napoli’s 58 goals scored pace Serie A, with Inter being 14 behind them.

The fearsome attack led by Victor Osimhen and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is running rampant at the moment, with Osimhen having scored in each of Napoli’s last nine starts and “Kvaradona” registering four goals and five assists in his last seven matches. That’s a key reason why Napoli have scored multiple goals in eight straight Serie A outings.

As for Lazio, their last eight matches in all competitions have been low-scoring affairs. None have seen more than two goals scored and six have seen at least one side fail to score. Their last five matches in Serie A have seen fewer than three goals, including their last three on the road.

There have been 19 goals scored between the two sides in their last five showdowns, with Napoli scoring at least three times in each of the last three meetings at Stadio Maradona.

Five of the last six hosted by Napoli have also seen three or more goals scored. That said, given both teams’ stingy defenses this season, the Under is slightly favored in the contest. 

Napoli vs Lazio game info

Napoli vs Lazio key injuries

Napoli: Mario Rui D (Out), Giacomo Raspadori F (Out).
Lazio: Sergej Milinkovic-Savic M (Probable), Alessio Romagnoli D (Questionable), Nicolo Casale D (Out).

Napoli vs Lazio weather

There is a slight chance of rain throughout the afternoon and evening in Napoli, with thunderstorms possible earlier in the afternoon. Winds won’t be an issue and temperatures should be in the low 50s at kickoff.

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