We have the Netherlands vs Croatia in Rotterdam, with the winner reaching the UEFA Nations League final to face either Spain or Italy. This past weekend we saw the club game in Europe reach its finale, but before the players can go on their summer vacations we have international games to get stuck into.
Both squads will be missing some players from their best lineups but that won’t stop the competition being fierce here. Which of these two nations will get closer to silverware? Don’t miss my Netherlands vs. Croatia betting picks to see who I think will reach the final of the Nations League.
Netherlands vs Croatia best odds
| Netherlands | Croatia | |
|---|---|---|
| -106 | Moneyline | +260 |
| +240 | Draw | +240 |
| Over 2.5 (+120) | Total | Under 2.5 (-150) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 12, 2023.
Netherlands vs Croatia picks and predictions
The Netherlands reached the UEFA Nations League final back in 2019 and will be hoping that they can beat Croatia to get back there. I believe they'll make that wish come true, which is why Netherlands ML at +105 is my best bet for this match.
The Netherlands have a number of exciting young talents coming through with Xavi Simons being one of the most interesting. Simons has scored 22 goals and created nine more this season for PSV, and he looks to be turning into the player that many expected him to be when he was a teenager at Barcelona. The 20-year-old should start here in an attack alongside Cody Gakpo, who broke out at the World Cup and got a January move to Liverpool.
Jurrien Timber is another great young defensive talent who can play in a backline with Virgil van Dijk. Frenkie de Jong is a legitimate world-class midfielder and despite some aging players in the squad, it’s notable that just five are 30 years old or above. That’s one less than Croatia have in their squad despite the Croats being a team in a rebuild.
It's always foolish to write off Croatia, who have proved again and again how hard they are to beat, but they were poor in Qatar and the brilliance of Luka Modric can’t cover that up. They lack real pace or a serious threat up front, and with defender Josko Gvardiol missing the game with an injury I think they’re without their second-best player. He was sensational at the World Cup and without him, I feel for a slow Croatian defense that could struggle with the pace and directness of the Dutch.
At +105 I’m confident to put my money behind the Netherlands. This game is being played in Rotterdam and in front of a home crowd. Don’t overthink this, back the Dutch.
My best bet: Netherlands moneyline (+105 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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Netherlands vs Croatia same-game parlay
Netherlands ML
Borna Sosa to get booked
Under 3.0 goals
This game offers a great opportunity to do a same-game parlay and I’ve got a +1,200 wager that really leaps off the page.
First off I'll be backing a Netherlands win, for all of the reasons outlined above. They are in my view the best team in this fixture and with a home crowd behind them, they should be able to do enough to get over the line and win this one inside 90 minutes.
Next I'm expecting Borna Sosa to get booked. The Croatian left back played all of their games in Qatar and is a key member of their team. Without Gvardiol alongside him, I think he could find himself in trouble — especially if Xavi Simons lines up opposite him. He’s picked up five bookings in 25 Bundesliga games this season for Stuttgart and I think he’s the most likely man to get booked here.
Finally, I'll be backing the game to have less than three goals. The main reasoning for this is based on what we saw from this team in the winter in Qatar when they tended to play safe. They’re a pragmatic team and their personnel suit that playing style... and I can’t see it changing. Two of their three group games were goalless, then they played two 1-1 draws before a 3-0 loss to Argentina. This is a team who are built to withstand attacks and get narrow wins. Although I doubt they win, I don’t believe they’ll change how they play.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Netherlands vs Croatia moneyline and Over/Under analysis
As mentioned above I’ll be backing the Dutch to win. They’re the better team here and the home crowd will undoubtedly give them an advantage. At +105 you’re not getting the biggest price, but it’s worth it. And while the +290 on Croatia feels very generous given what they’ve achieved in the past, you have to remember that those famous performances are long in the past.
I’ll also be backing this to be a low-scoring game, as the inclusion of Under 2.5 goals in my same-game parlay shows. This is a good — but not great — Netherlands team, who generally don’t blow their rivals away. Meanwhile, the Croatians are pragmatic and conservative. That sets this up to be a game without many goals and I’d be surprised if this was anything but a 1-0 or 2-0 Netherlands win.
Netherlands vs Croatia game info
| Location: | De Kuip, Rotterdam, Netherlands |
| Date: | Wednesday, June 14, 2023 |
| Time: | 2:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
Netherlands vs Croatia key injuries
Netherlands: Memphis Depay FWR (Out), Matthijs de Ligt CB (Out).
Croatia: Josko Gvardiol CB (Out).
Netherlands vs Croatia weather
Temperatures in Rotterdam will be in the high 70s at kickoff.
