Netherlands vs South Africa Predictions, Odds, and Picks: Jill Gets Her Fill

After winning a tough Group E, the Netherlands look to continue their march towards the 2023 FIFA Women’s World Cup Final when they travel to Sydney to face off with South Africa on Saturday night.

A 7-0 thrashing of Vietnam was more than enough to claim top spot in the group, as the Dutch held off the United States and avoided a very tough matchup with Sweden in the Round of 16. 

Now they will have to go against a South African side that knows no quit, as it was their stoppage-time winner against Italy that pushed them into second place in Group G. After failing to earn a single point in the previous World Cup, they’re hoping to continue to make noise with another historic upset. 

Can the Banyana Banyana do the improbable as decided underdogs, or will the Dutch continue to assert their will and look to do what they couldn’t four years ago? Find out in our Netherlands vs South Africa picks and predictions for Saturday, August 5. 

Netherlands vs South Africa odds

Netherlands		South Africa
-400	Moneyline	+800
+550	Draw	+550
Over 2.5 (-225)	Total	Under 2.5 (+170)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 4, 2023.

Netherlands vs South Africa picks and predictions

Sometimes when you’re looking over lines for a match, you start comparing them across books and find one that is simply broken. Thankfully, that’s what happened in the player props market, and we’re here to help you take advantage.

Jill Roord has been terrific for the Dutch so far in the Women’s World Cup. Her six shots on target in this tournament are tied for third-most of any player, and she’s got three goals so far from 15 efforts in total. 

Roord’s 2.55 xG leads all players, and it was her goal in the first half against the United States that helped secure a valuable point. She followed that up with a performance against Vietnam that saw her attempt 10 shots, putting five on frame and scoring a pair of goals.

Saturday’s match against South Africa is going to present another opportunity for the Dutch to have a high-volume shot output. They attempted 42 shots against Vietnam in their 7-0 victory, and 12 against Portugal. They’re a ball dominant team, and had 72% possession against Vietnam.

South Africa’s a counter-attacking side that doesn’t mind ceding possession, having had less than 40% in each of their three contests so far. They’re going to be content to sit back and try to absorb pressure, leading to a greater probability of shots from the midfield of the Netherlands. 

If that happens, it’s extremely unlucky that Roord will not be involved in testing the keeper. That’s reflected in her odds to put a shot on target.

In fact, the odds of Roord registering at least one shot on goal are quite juiced at almost every book. It’s -650 at DraftKings, and it’s -200 at FanDuel.

But apparently bet365 hasn’t gotten the word. Either that, or they know something that nobody else does, because one or more shots on goal for Roord is priced at just -120. This is one of the biggest discrepancies between sites that I’ve seen in a long time for any sporting event.

I strongly urge you to race to the bet365 app or website and take advantage while you can. I’d even suggest, given the disparity of prices, that this is a multi-unit play, but I’ll leave that up to you. 

My best bet: Jill Roord Over 0.5 shots on goal (-120 at bet365)

Netherlands vs South Africa same-game parlay

Roord Over 0.5 shots on goal

Over 2.5

Netherlands Over 5.5 shots on target

Most goals to be scored in second half

+450 at bet365

Roord’s shot on goal is just one of a four-leg same-game parlay that should come through and pay out handsomely at bet365. 

South Africa doesn’t play in low-scoring affairs, and they’re not going to be afraid to attack with pace. Thembi Kgatlana and Hildah Magaia have the pace to hurt the Dutch on the counter, and the Dutch have firepower all over. I like three or more goals in this contest.

As we discussed earlier, the Dutch are likely going to pepper the South African goal, and considering they’ve managed 17 shots on goal against Vietnam and five against Portugal — the two matches that most resemble how this will play out — I expect them to get at least six of them on frame.

Finally, this feels like one of those affairs that are cagey in the first half and then open up after the intermission. 

All three goals in South Africa’s match against Sweden came after halftime, as did three of their four goals with Argentina and three of the five scored in their match with Italy. The Dutch have been more prone to scoring early and then hanging on, but things should open up with South Africa having to go for it after halftime. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Netherlands vs South Africa spread and Over/Under analysis

If you want to bet on the Dutch to win in regulation, be prepared to parlay it. You’re paying -400 or more to take the Netherlands on the 3-way line, while South Africa are getting as high as +1100 at WynnBET to come out victorious. The draw pays out +550 for those bold enough to take it.

While the Banyana Banyana story is a terrific one, there won’t be a happy ending for them on Saturday. They’ll still be without captain Refiloe Jane, who was stretchered off in the draw with Argentina and remains out. 

The Netherlands are simply too good and they’ve been great the past two matches despite not having their biggest threat in attack. But Lineth Beerensteyn is fit and ready to go now, and while it might be off the bench, it just shows how deep and talented the Dutch side is.

As for the total, the standard 2.5 line is out the window for most people. You’ll pay -210 or more to play the Over in this one. The Under 3.5 is favored with a price of -140 or more, whereas Over 3.5 is getting plus odds.

I’m staying away from the total here as a straight play. This feels like a 2-1 or 3-0 scoreline, which is why we added it in the parlay, and I’m not willing to tack on another goal to play it outright. Sweden defeated South Africa by a 2-1 scoreline to open the tournament, and that’s how I see this playing out. 

Netherlands vs South Africa game info

Netherlands vs South Africa key injuries

Netherlands: Lineth Beerensteyn F (Probable).
South Africa: Refiloe Jane M (Out).

Pages related to this topic