Newcastle vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Magpies Crush Gunner Hopes

Whisper it quietly, but the Premier League title might be decided this Sunday with Newcastle vs. Arsenal. The Gunners are chasing Man City in the title race, and they know that anything but three points against Newcastle isn’t enough.

Newcastle have been far better than anybody expected this season and would love the chance to derail Arsenal’s Premier League title bid. Don’t miss our Newcastle vs Arsenal betting picks and predictions for Sunday, May 7.

Newcastle vs Arsenal best odds

Newcastle vs Arsenal picks and predictions

We’ve got a big weekend of Premier League action and it’s certain that the biggest and most important game of the week is Newcastle vs. Arsenal on Sunday. A real clash of the big boys with Newcastle sat third in the Premier League, one spot behind Arsenal. It’s a big clash that I believe will have real implications over the destination of the Premier League title.

It’s been a great season for Arsenal; they’ve exceeded expectations, and with just weeks of the Premier League season left, they’re still in the title race as they go toe-to-toe with Pep Guardiola’s behemoth Manchester City. With City playing a day earlier, it’s piled the pressure on Mikel Arteta’s team and St James’ Park isn’t the place you want to be when you need to win three points.

Newcastle have turned St James’ Park into a fortress this year and they’ve taken a huge leap forward. Many expected the Saudi Arabian investment to turn the club around, but even the biggest Newcastle fan wouldn’t have expected the progress that the team has made this season under Eddie Howe. With Champions League action now nearly secured for next season, there’s only one thing to make the season complete, for Newcastle to get a famous victory here, damaging Arsenal’s Premier League title hopes and sending the league a warning for next year.  

This has the potential to be the final devastating blow for Arsenal’s title bid, and I’m sorry to say that I think this weekend is where the title ends up in Manchester. I really think this Newcastle team will cause Arsenal trouble, and my best bet reflects that, as I’m backing the draw at +285. 

The reverse fixture in January saw the teams draw 0-0, and I’m expecting to see something similar here. There are two reasons why I think a draw makes the most sense: Firstly, the injuries in the Arsenal team. The reality is that Arsenal are only missing two key starters, but with William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes out, the core of their central defense is gone and a frontline featuring Alexander Isak and/or Callum Wilson could cause them serious issues. Arsenal haven’t been the same team since Saliba was ruled out, and they’ve dropped a lot of points, showing just how integral he was to the backline.

The second reason why I’m backing the draw is Newcastle’s exceptional home form this season. They may have only won 10 of their 16 games at St James’ Park, but they’ve slumped to defeat just once. This is a well-coached team and I’m confident that they’ll be able to limit Arsenal to one goal at most, while I’m confident either Wilson or Isak will find the back of the net.

Newcastle have only allowed 11 goals at home this season, the second-best record in the Premier League, and they should be able to restrict this Arsenal attack. Given the quality in both teams, Arsenal’s defensive injuries and Newcastle’s home record, the +285 available on the draw looks like a far better wager than backing either team to win.

My best bet: Draw (+285 at Unibet)

Newcastle vs Arsenal side analysis

The biggest issue for the visitors are the injuries for Gabriel and Saliba. With Saliba certain to miss the game and Gabriel unlikely, it means we could see the duo of Rob Holding and Jakub Kiwior get their first Premier League start together. They’ll be flanked by Oleksandr Zinchenko and Ben White. In midfield we’ll see Thomas Partey, Granit Xhaka, and Martin Odegaard. The magical Norwegian will be tasked with creating chances for Arsenal’s front three with Gabriel Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, and Bukayo Saka 

Newcastle will play a 4-3-3. The backline has been exceptional this season and has done a great job at protecting Nick Pope in goal. Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar, and Kieran Trippier will be confident of shackling Arsenal’s attackers. In midfield, we know we’ll see Joe Willock and Bruno Guimaraes. They might be joined by Joelinton, but we could see the Brazilian playing in the front three too. Jacob Murphy and Anthony Gordon started either side of Isak last weekend, but Gordon was replaced at the start of the halftime for Callum Wilson, and we might see him start this one and push Isak wide. 

I’m backing the draw here but either team has the potential to win. However, given how close it is between the two teams and the pressure that Arsenal will be under, the draw and it’s big odds just seem far more appealing, especially when their recent meeting finished tied.

Newcastle vs Arsenal Over/Under analysis

The total market sees Over 2.5 goals as the favorite with odds of -148. Newcastle have had a great home record this season in terms of results, and partly because of that, it means we’ve seen the majority of games going Under 2.5 goals, with 62.5% of matches having less than three goals. On just two occasions this season has the away team scored more than one goal, with Liverpool and Man City the only teams to do it.

Arsenal have had Over 2.5 goals in 52.6% of Premier League games away from home this year, with Overs landing in their past four trips, with those four games combining for 16 goals. Given that I think the game will finish tied, I’d back Under 2.5 goals here at +130. As a draw, I can only see it being 0-0, 2-2, or most likely 1-1, given that two of those are Under three goals, I have to back the Under.

Newcastle vs Arsenal game info

Newcastle vs Arsenal key injuries

Newcastle: Emil Krafth RB (Out), Jamaal Lascelles CB (Out), Ryan Fraser RB (Out), Allan Saint-Maximin FWR (Questionable), Sean Longstaff CM (Questionable).
Arsenal: Takehiro Tomiyasu RB (Out), Mohamed Elneny CM (Out), William Saliba CB (Out), Gabriel Magalhaes CB (Questionable).

Newcastle vs Arsenal recent form

Teams	Last five matches
Newcastle	W-L-W-W-W
Arsenal	D-D-D-L-W

Newcastle vs Arsenal weather

A dry but cloudy day will see temperatures in the mid-to-high 50s.

Pages related to this topic