There’s no question as to the spiciest match in the third round of the FA Cup, as Sunderland and Newcastle United will renew hostilities on Saturday at the Stadium of Light. Our FA Cup soccer odds show the visitors to be favored to advance to the next round.
The Wear-Tyne Derby—or Tyne-Wear, if you’re of Newcastle persuasion—is one of the more contentious in all of English football. And for Sunderland, it’s a reminder of what used to be. They were relegated at the end of the 2016-17 campaign, but a successful start to this season has them dreaming of a possible return. Knocking Newcastle out of the FA Cup in their first meeting since 2016 would put their fans on Cloud Nine.
Newcastle will want to end two runs of matches without a win. They’ve lost their last four matches this season, and seven of their last eight overall. But they’ve also gone nine straight against Sunderland without a victory, the last of which came back in 2011. With an ever-growing injury list, and Eddie Howe’s job in question, the pressure is growing on the Magpies.
Our FA Cup predictions between Sunderland vs Newcastle explain why the fireworks both on and off the pitch should lead to one of the most entertaining matches of the entire tournament.
Sunderland vs Newcastle best odds
| Sunderland |  Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| +300 | Moneyline | -125 |
| +325 | Draw | +300 |
| Over 3 (+114) | Total | Under 3 (-136) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 5, 2024.
Sunderland vs Newcastle picks and predictions
Want to get a sense of just how vitriolic this rivalry is? The 6,000 Newcastle fans attending must travel on club-assigned transport with a police escort for the 13-mile journey from Newcastle to the Stadium of Light.
Both Howe and Sunderland manager Michael Beale understand what is at stake here. It’s more than simply moving on to the next round of the FA Cup—or a possible replay for Newcastle at home, should the match end in a draw. It’s a chance for each side to get bragging rights for the foreseeable future over their hated foes.
And 43,000 Sunderland fans are going to be in full throat, backing a team that knows they’ve got a chance to pile misery onto a Newcastle side that entered this season with hopes of challenging for a title. Instead, the Magpies sit ninth in the Premier League table, 16 points adrift of Liverpool, having taken just three of a possible 18 points in their last six league outings.
With so much at stake, neither team is going to want to sit back and let the other dictate the terms of engagement. That’s why I’m backing a high-scoring affair on Saturday, with both teams finding the back of the net.
Sunderland knows this is a vulnerable spot for their visitors, and Beale also knows he must keep the crowd fully engaged. His side isn’t the most attacking, but they find a way to score goals. Since taking over for Tony Mowbray last month, Sunderland have won four and drawn one in their seven matches, with the Black Cats scoring in five of those fixtures.
But Newcastle’s not preventing many goals these days. In fact, they’re fortunate their 4-2 defeat to Liverpool at the weekend wasn’t much worse. Goalkeeper Martin Dubravka stood on his head at times, denying Mohamed Salah a goal from the spot. Liverpool registered 7.11 xG and wasted numerous opportunities, while Newcastle were outshot 34-5 on the day.
The Magpies have the talent to win this match but will be without striker Callum Wilson and are sweating the status of fullback Kieran Trippier. That means other players will have to step up in attack. That also means more space in which Sunderland can hit on the break, an area where Newcastle have repeatedly been exposed of late.
I don’t see either side walking out of here with a clean sheet, and it’s very hard to see Sunderland wanting a replay. They’ll want to beat Newcastle at home in front of their fans, and win or lose they’ll want to decide it in their house. Newcastle’s struggling to defend, and yet more injury issues compound that problem.
So rather than trying to pick a side, we’ll head to TonyBet and take a solid -113 price on a combo play, with both sides scoring and at least three goals between them. Then settle in for an absolute banger of a match, one that reminds us just how magical the FA Cup can still be.
My best bet: Over 2.5 goals + both teams to score — Yes (-113 at TonyBet)
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Sunderland vs Newcastle same-game parlay
Over 2.5 goals
Both teams to score — Yes
Jack Clarke to score or assist
Sunderland double chance (win/draw)
FanDuel hosts our same-game parlay, as we’re backing Sunderland to cause Newcastle serious problems.
Jack Clarke has been at the center of everything Sunderland does offensively. His 12 goals are fourth-most in the Championship this season, and his 8.8 xG and 6.1 xA lead the team. Teams have been attacking Newcastle’s right flank of late, and Clarke will be going against either a hobbled Trippier or a shaky backup in Valentino Livramento.
Sunderland have a real shot to prevent a win here, enough so that +105 is probably a misprice. The oddsmakers are banking on Newcastle having more talent. And they do, but that talent is playing in an extremely hostile environment in a match where they’ve got all the pressure.
Newcastle haven’t handled that pressure well at all, and I’m not backing a team that has one draw and seven defeats in their last eight away.
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Sunderland vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis
Newcastle’s price of around -135 to -140 on the 3-way money line is somewhat surprising. It’s mostly based on them being the Premier League side, but as we just stated, they’ve been horrendous away from home. They have just two wins in all competitions this season, compared to nine defeats and four draws.
Sunderland sit sixth in the Championship and have won nine at home this season compared to six defeats and no draws. They’ve won five of their last seven at home, and have conceded multiple goals just twice in that span.
I love Sunderland at plus-odds on the double-chance market, and I’m planning to sprinkle a little on their +330 moneyline. The Draw at +335 is also very tempting, but I don’t think this match will get to a replay.
The total of 2.5 is shaded heavily towards the Over, priced around -150 at most books. Neither of these defenses are what you’d call stellar, and this match is going to be heavily contested. Free kicks will be had, and I’ll not be shocked to see a penalty at some point.
Newcastle have conceded two or more goals in seven of their last 11 away fixtures in all competitions, and the teams scoring those have included Wolves, West Ham, Everton, and Bournemouth.
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Sunderland vs Newcastle game info
| Location: | Stadium of Light, Sunderland, England |
| Date: | Saturday, January 6, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:45 a.m. ET |
| TV: | FuboTV |
| Weather: | Temp 39F, Wind 6mph, POP: 5% |
Sunderland vs Newcastle key injuries
Sunderland: Niall Huggins D (Out), Jay Matete M (Out), Corry Evans M (Out).
Newcastle: Nick Pope GK (Out), Callum Wilson F (Out), Kieran Trippier D (Doubtful).
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