USA vs Canada Picks and Predictions: Another Hotly-Contested Tilt in the Desert

After dispatching their rivals to the south, the United States men’s national team will look to do the same with their much friendlier northern neighbors when they square off with Canada in Sunday’s CONCACAF Nations League final. 

Canada is seeking their first major trophy since the turn of the century, when they claimed victory in the 2000 Gold Cup after their 2-0 win over Panama in the semifinal. Standing in their way is a USA side that finished their 3-0 win over Mexico with only nine men on the pitch in a match that was marred by fighting and wretched fan behavior.

Will the USMNT be able to overcome key absences in their midfield, or will Canada’s counter-pressing style be able to take advantage and bring home a long-awaited piece of hardware? We break down the action in our United States vs Canada picks and predictions for Sunday, June 18. 

USA vs Canada best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 17, 2023.

USA vs Canada picks and predictions

While it’s been 23 years since they raised a trophy, it’s been more than twice that long since Canada defeated the Americans in their own backyard. The last time the Canadians came south and claimed victory was in 1957, a feat they’ll have to repeat if they hope to win on Sunday in Las Vegas.

They’re also keen to erase the memories of a very disappointing World Cup. A dark-horse pick by many, Canada failed to earn a point, scoring just two goals as they lost all three of their matches. But they’ve recovered nicely, winning all three of their CONCACAF Nations League games since then by a combined score of 8-1. 

Striker Jonathan David is in strong form, and his opener on Thursday gives him three goals in his last three outings for the national team. 

The United States won the inaugural Nations League trophy in 2021, and seek to remain the only holders of it with a win over Canada. They’ve failed to beat their northern neighbors in each of their last two meetings, drawing 1-1 at home in World Cup qualifying before losing 2-0 in Canada. 

Thursday night’s performance against Mexico gave USMNT fans quite a bit to be excited about. While he didn’t score himself, Folarin Balogun’s movement contributed to their second goal on the night as Christian Pulisic scored either side of halftime. With Tyler Adams absent, their lineup was as strong as it could be and left many American fans believing this was their strongest side possible.

That won’t be the case on Sunday. Their depth will have to come into play with Weston McKennie and Sergino Dest both suspended after being shown straight red cards in a match that got very contentious as Mexico got outclassed. The loss of those two players will hurt a defense that held Mexico to just one shot on goal.

Canada were a bit fortunate to keep Panama from scoring on Thursday night, but this is a much tougher attack to stop. The USMNT looked lethal with Gio Reyna pulling the strings, and it’s hard to see Canada keeping another clean sheet. 

But the same goes for the United States. Mexico was without their top three strikers and multiple key players in the middle. Canada will likely have Alphonso Davies back in the starting lineup, and his pace can cause real problems, while David and Cyle Larin will test the back line. 

Belgium are the only side to keep Canada off the scoresheet in their last eight matches, and only Panama and Curacao have failed to score against them in their last nine. Meanwhile, the USMNT has scored in seven of its last nine, and their defense will be tested. 

Take both teams to score in what should be a highly-entertaining and well-played match. 

My best bet: Both teams to score - Yes (+110 at bet365)

USA vs Canada side analysis

The 3-way moneyline has the USMNT as favorites on home soil, with a draw slightly ahead of a Canada victory. But to lift the trophy, the United States are heavily favored at nearly -200. They’ve defeated Canada in six of their 12 all-time meetings, with the northern half of the continent winning just twice.

Canada has won each of their three matches since the World Cup, but prior to that they had mixed results against CONCACAF foes. 

Their World Cup qualifiers and Nations League matches last year saw them winning at home, but performing poorly on the road. Davies is likely to return on Sunday, but it might be too soon for Jonathan Osorio, who made his return in the second half after missing much of his MLS season.

For the USA, they’ll be without McKennie and Dest due to suspension, while Adams misses out due to injury. But they should field a strong lineup as they look to push their unbeaten run to six matches. They’ve also gone five games without a loss against CONCACAF opposition, but have not lost a home match to a regional foe in their last 23 outings. 

I expect that streak to move to 24 on Sunday, but not enough to bet it in regulation. Canada presents a formidable test for the United States, and Davies can cause real problems on the counter. The absence of two key midfielders and Dest’s runs will also stifle the attack a bit, and I could see some missed connections and poor turnovers because of it. 

A regulation draw does offer a bit of value, but I’m staying away from the 3-way line altogether. 

USA vs Canada Over/Under analysis

The total is heavily weighted towards the Under, as the public has been betting early and often that fewer than 2.5 goals will be scored in regulation. The juice on the Under runs anywhere from -175 to -200, making it unplayable at the moment. If you’re inclined to take the Over, you can get a very favorable price at +150 in the soccer odds.

Canada’s last 12 matches have seen the Over come through seven times. Both teams have scored in six of those, while Canada have scored in 10 of those matches.  

The USMNT have allowed just two goals in their last five matches, and have seen the Under come through in three of those five as well. In addition, the last three meetings between these nations have seen two or fewer goals, as have 10 of the 12 all-time meetings. 

I’m unlikely to bet this line live, but I like the Over here. Given our best bet is for both teams to score, it won’t take much more to see a third goal, and both teams have the firepower to make that happen. 

I might wait to see how the first 10 minutes play out, but if it appears in any way the match will be an end-to-end affair, I would advise jumping on the Over and enjoying the value. 

USA vs Canada game info

USA vs Canada key injuries

USA: Weston McKennie M (Out), Sergino Dest D (Out), Tyler Adams M (Out).
Canada: Jonathan Osorio M (Probable), Alphonso Davies D (Probable).

USA vs Canada weather

As it usually is in Las Vegas this time of year, Sunday will be a hot one. The temperature at kickoff will be near 100 degrees, but thankfully the domed Allegiant Stadium won’t subject fans or players to much of that heat.

Pages related to this topic