USA vs Jamaica Picks and Predictions: Home is Where the Victory Is

The CONCACAF Gold Cup tournament begins this week, and Saturday’s match between the United States and Jamaica will be one of the more intriguing showdowns of the group stages.

A week after humiliating Mexico en route to a CONCACAF Nations League title, the United States looks to match El Tri by winning their eighth Gold Cup tournament with a vastly different squad. The path to that feat won’t be easy, as their Group A play begins with a match against a tough Jamaican side that has called up five Premier League players for the tournament. 

Can the Americans get off to a winning start and beat Jamaica for the 20th time in 32 meetings, or will the Reggae Boyz make a big statement and end an eight-match winless streak? Let’s help you find the best betting angle in our USA vs Jamaica picks and predictions for Saturday, June 24.

USA vs Jamaica best odds

Odds courtesy of bet365 on June 23, 2023.

USA vs Jamaica picks and predictions

While the roster won’t have the European-based stars that helped them win the Nations League last weekend, the USMNT will have plenty of talent and depth on hand. Interim manager BJ Callaghan has shown a terrific tactical ability to set his team up to not only accentuate their strengths but to limit those of their opponents.

Miles Robinson will remain in the squad, helping to solidify a back line that didn’t allow a single goal against Mexico and Canada. Those two sides were held to just five total shots on goal as their top playmakers were repeatedly stifled and frustrated.

The issue for the USMNT will be finding playmakers of their own. Without the services of Christian Pulisic or Gio Reyna, that task will fall to players like Gianluca Busio and Cristian Roldan to set up chances for the likes of Jordan Morris, Jesus Ferreira, and Cade Cowell. As the leading scorer for the USMNT at the U-20 World Cup earlier this summer, Cowell will likely get some looks in this tournament.

But Jamaica aren’t going to be an easy opponent. Sure, they’ve not won any of their last eight matches away from home, or in any of their last eight matches overall, and they’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last 20 total matches. But they will feature a trio of dangerous Premier League forwards in Leon Bailey, Michail Antonio, and Demarai Gray. They’ll also have the services of Andre Blake, one of the top keepers in MLS.

That said, the USMNT will have the advantage in midfield and that’s where they won their two matches against Mexico and Canada. Much as they did in the final, Callaghan will set up the Yanks to sit a bit deeper and limit Jamaica's ability to hit on the break. Jamaica have lost recently to the likes of Jordan and Qatar, and I see nothing that indicates that they’re going to be able to contain the superior midfield talent fielded by the US. 

One big concern for the USMNT anytime they play in an international tournament is “getting CONCACAF’d” by the officials, but Saturday’s match will be officiated by Cesar Ramos. Ramos was in charge of the World Cup semi-final between France and Morocco and is one of the better officials in the region. While the USMNT have not won any of their last three matches under his purview, there have been few moments of controversy.

With that knowledge, I'm quite confident that the match will be decided by the play on the pitch. The United States will take care of business and walk away with the victory. I don’t like the juice on the moneyline, however, so I’m going with them to win by at least one goal via the Asian handicap — a result the USMNT has achieved in three of their last five against Jamaica. A multi-goal victory will pay out nicely, while a win by a single goal will return your wager.

My best bet: United States -1 Asian Handicap (+145 at BetRivers)

USA vs Jamaica side analysis

The 3-way line has the United States favored anywhere between -135 and -150, with the draw being the second favorite. Jamaica is getting as high as +400 to win, as they’re heavy underdogs.

We’ve already given out the US to win as our Best Bet, which would be their fifth victory in six matches. They’re unbeaten in their last six, outscoring their opponents 14-2 in that span. As for the visitors, Jamaica haven’t gotten a win in their last eight, losing four times and being outscored 14-6 in the process. 

The US have won four of their last five against Jamaica, drawing 1-1 in their last meeting in the 2021 World Cup qualification round. Jamaica haven’t beaten the US since a 1-0 win in a 2019 friendly, which is also the last time they won on American soil. Those trends will continue on Saturday night.

USA vs Jamaica Over/Under analysis

The Total of 2.5 goals is shaded towards the Under, with most books offering it at -120 or higher. The recent trends, however, indicate the Over might be the way to go. 

The Yanks have been terrific defensively since the World Cup. Since allowing two goals in a 2-1 loss to Serbia in their first friendly of the year, they’ve conceded just two goals in the next six matches. That’s led to four matches going Under the 2.5 goal mark, as they’ve scored more than two goals just three times. 

Jamaica’s poor defensive record, however, offers some value on the other side of the total. Their last three matches have all featured three or more goals, with their opponent scoring twice in each. They’ve also suffered a pair of 3-0 defeats to the last two high-quality sides they faced, as both Morocco and Argentina blitzed them last summer. Five of their last seven matches have gone Over.

That said, the last three head-to-head meetings have all gone Under, with a total of five goals scored. Personally, I’ll be staying away from this one, as I’m projecting a 2-0 win, but Jamaica’s poor defense could easily be carved up for more. 

USA vs Jamaica game info

USA vs Jamaica key injuries

USA: Jordan Morris F (Probable).
Jamaica: None.

USA vs Jamaica weather

Chicago’s Soldier Field will host Saturday’s match, and the weather couldn’t be better. The forecast has temperatures in the mid-70s at kickoff, with a minimal chance of rain and winds in the low teens.

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