Villarreal vs Juventus Picks and Predictions: Injuries Holding Juve Back

While Juventus may be the household name in this fixture, key injuries to Juve's attack and backline defense as well as recent form have us leaning on Villarreal at home. Read more in our Villarreal vs. Juventus Champions League picks and predictions.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Feb 22, 2022 • 10:15 ET • 4 min read
Arnaut Danjuma Villarreal Champions League
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Tuesday sees Juventus travel to the eastern side of Spain to face Villarreal. Neither team is having a brilliant season domestically but that doesn’t matter when you’re in the last 16 of the Champions League. Progress through this round and anything is possible.

Villarreal won 4-1 at the weekend, can they continue that hot form into this game? Don’t miss our Villarreal vs. Juventus tips and predictions.

Villarreal vs Juventus match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Villarreal vs Juventus betting tips

Predictions made on 2/21/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Villarreal vs Juventus game info

Location: Estadio de la Ceramica, Villarreal, Spain
Date: Tuesday, February 22, 2022
Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
TV: fuboTV, Paramount+

Villarreal vs Juventus betting preview

Weather

Temperatures in the high-50s should make these comfortable conditions for the teams. There’ll be sun all day and there should be no wind. 

Injuries

Villarreal: Francis Coquelin MF (Out), Paco Alcacer CF (Out), Ruben Pena RB (Out).
Juventus: Paulo Dybala ST (Out), Giorgio Chiellini CB (Out), Daniele Rugani (Questionable), Federico Bernardeschi CB (Out), Federico Chiesa RW (Out).

Villarreal vs Juventus predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

While neither Villarreal nor Juventus are ripping things up at the domestic level, and only the Old Lady can be described as European giants, this feels like a quintessential Champions League game.

There’s something thrilling about certain kit matchups in European competition and the kit clash between Villarreal’s famous all yellow uniform and Juventus’ iconic black and white stripes will be a treat for the eyes.

The Yellow Submarine sit sixth in La Liga three points behind Barcelona and Atletico Madrid. The club finished seventh in La Liga last year and qualified for the Champions League this year by beating Manchester United in the final of the Europa League last year.

They currently have the fourth-best defensive record in the league with only Real Madrid, Sevilla, and Athletic Club conceding fewer goals.

Juventus are nine points behind Milan in Serie A and it looks like another rebuilding year for the Old Lady who sits fourth in the table.

A good performance in the Champions League groups saw them finish ahead of Chelsea and the January signing of Dusan Vlahovic from Fiorentina is hoped to be the one that propels them back to relevancy. 

Given the talent in their squad, you’d expect Juventus to be favorites but they’re +200 for a good reason — they are devastated by injuries. Their attack is missing Paulo Dybala and the incredible Federico Chiesa, who lit up Euro 2020 in the summer.

Defensively, they’re looking even weaker with central defenders Giorgio Chiellini and Daniele Rugani not part of the matchday squad.

There’s an outside chance that Leonardo Bonucci could make an appearance but it’s expected that Matthijs de Ligt will be partnered by Danilo. Moving into Danilo’s usual right-back slot would be Juan Cuadrado with Alex Sandro, who has been used as makeshift CB back in his preferred left-back position. 

Given those injuries, it’s hard to look at the Juventus team and feel confident that they could return to Turin with a win. They’re missing a number of key stars and in particular the defensive duo of Bonucci and Chiellini, who despite their advancing ages are still one of the world’s most capable duos.

The leadership and authority that either man can provide will be sorely missed and de Ligt, despite being highly touted when he moved from Ajax, has failed to blossom into the player that was expected. 

Meanwhile, Villarreal come into this game unbeaten in their past four matches and coming in off a high following a demolition of Granada on Saturday which saw them win 4-1 away from home.

They’re not without some injuries too with Gerard Moreno and Ruben Pena missing but they have capable replacements and their strength has always been as being a team and more than the sum of their individual parts. 

Any list of Villarreal’s star men will continue to feature Pau Torres, who has been a defensive rock for them since coming from the youth system and he’s one of the best defenders in Spain.

Villarreal has scored 42 league goals this season and two of the key players involved have been Daniel Parejo and Arnaut Danjuma. Danjuma already has four Champions League goals to his name and with Moreno missing there will be more pressure on him to score, but it’s something he’s capable of doing, having already scored eight in just 12 La Liga starts.

He’ll be helped by Parejo who has been in incredible form. He’s had eight assists in all competitions and will look to win the midfield battle against Adrien Rabiot and Manuel Locatelli.

When it comes to putting our money on the game, you have to take into account Villarreal’s recent form and the health struggles of Juventus’ backline. Take Villarreal to win this first game of the tie. 

Prediction: Villarreal (+145)

Over/Under analysis

With Juventus' injuries at the heart of their defense, you won’t be shocked to hear that I’m backing Over 2.5 goals here. That will also be aided by Dusan Vlahovic, with the Juventus man a serious goal-getter and somebody who should score here.

There have been Over 2.5 goals in 61.5% of Villarreal’s home games this season with that landing in four of the last five matches at El Madrigal. 

Prediction: Over 2.5 (+130)

Best bet

We’ve touched upon him already but on Tuesday we’ll see Dusan Vlahovic make his Champions League bow.

The 22-year-old arrived in Turin in January from Fiorentina, having been there since 2018. The Serbian was one of the most sought-after strikers in the world and Juventus' new No. 7 has had a rapid rise to prominence. 

Over the past two years, he’s really grown into being one the best goalscorers on the planet. Last season was his first as a regular starter but he returned 34 starts with 21 goals.

This season, he took a huge leap forward, notching 17 goals in 21 Serie A games for Fiorentina, as well as four in eight for his nation, before a transfer to Juventus on January 28th, the day of his 22nd birthday.

His first game for the Old Lady saw him start against Verona and score the opening goal in a 2-0 win. Vlahovic is a strong player, good in the air, and with lethal finishing.

From what I’ve seen, he looks like he could be the real deal and I believe we won’t have to wait long to see him score his first Champions League goal. At +175 I’ll be backing Vlahovic to open his account against Villarreal on Tuesday.

Pick: Dusan Vlahovic to score (+175)

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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