Saturday’s showpiece game in the Premier League sees Watford welcome Manchester City to Vicarage Road. The teams sit at opposite ends of the table, with Man City chasing the title and Watford pursuing another season in the Premier League.
We’ve already seen one team from Manchester lose at Watford in the past month, could there be another upset? Check out our Watford vs. Man City picks and predictions and find out.
Watford vs Manchester City match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Watford vs Manchester City betting tips
- Prediction: Manchester City (-500)
- Prediction: Under 2.5 (+175)
- Best bet: Dennis to get booked (+162)
Predictions made on 12/2/2021 at 7:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
If you're signing up for a new sportsbook for some EPL betting, here are two of the best welcome bonuses available:
USA: Sign up with Caesars and get your first bet matched up to $1,001! Claim Now
Canada: Get a 100%-matched sign-up bonus (up to $400) at BetVictor. Claim Now
Watford vs Manchester City game info
• Location: Vicarage Road, Watford, England
• Date: Saturday, December 4, 2021
• Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, DAZN
Watford vs Manchester City betting preview
Weather
The floodlights will be on at Vicarage Road with this game kicking off in the late afternoon local time. Temperatures will be around 40 degrees with it likely to be dry and only mild wind.
Injuries
Watford: Adam Masina LB (Out), Ismaila Sarr RW (Out), Ben Foster GK (Out), Kwadwo Baah ST (Out), Nicolas N'Koulou CB (Out), Peter Etebo CM (Out).
Manchester City: Ilkay Gundogan CM (Questionable), John Stones CB (Questionable), Kyle Walker RB (Questionable), Kevin de Bruyne CM (Doubtful) Ferran Torres ST (Out).
Watford vs Manchester City predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
These two teams have had very different seasons so far. Watford sit one spot out of the relegation zone in 17th with 13 points on the season. Man City have more than double the points of Watford, with their 32 points putting them in second behind Chelsea.
Despite the different seasons for both clubs and their very different ambitions, this game already feels like one that is crucial for both teams. For Man City, they simply cannot afford to drop points. The top three, Chelsea, City, and Liverpool, are only separated by two points and you can’t drop behind in the race for the title.
Watford are three points ahead of Burnley, who sit in the relegation zone, but Sean Dyche’s club have a game in hand. Looking upwards, Watford are only three points behind Brentford who sit in 11th. That shows how tight it is at the bottom of the Premier League right now. Nobody is expecting anything from Watford on Saturday but if they upset the odds then a point, or even three, would be a huge boost on their hopes to stay in the league.
It was only two weeks ago that Watford shocked Man City’s rivals, Manchester United at Vicarage Road. Watford’s 4-1 victory ultimately led to Man United sacking their manager but Watford will need to do even better to even take a point off Man City. Anything is possible in the Premier League but Pep Guardiola is a master tactician and his team are heavy -500 favorites to win on Saturday.
It’s always difficult to pick Guardiola’s lineups, with him often making surprise selections, but we know that Ferran Torres is out and the magnificent Kevin De Bruyne is a doubt too. We’re almost certain to see Bernardo Silva play. The Portuguese midfielder has been incredible this season, scoring five in 13 games, and is arguably the best player in the Premier League on current form, beside Mohamed Salah. He was linked with a transfer out of Manchester City this past summer but his incredible form amongst a series of injury problems for the club have shown it was the right decision to keep him around.
Watford’s team is slightly easier to predict. We’re likely to see them set their team up defensively to neutralize Man City’s incredible passing and movement. Moussa Sissoko will almost certainly be in the midfield trying to break up the play. They’ll hope that they can get the ball up to Joshua King, who’ll be able to create some magic and score on the counter or hold up the ball and bring Emmanuel Dennis into play. Dennis has been Watford’s best player this season and his return of six goals and five assists in 12 games has been part of the reason that Watford are clear of the relegation zone.
This Watford team play with heart and desire and do have some talented players but they’re coming up against a Man City team who are unstoppable at the moment and have the craft and nous to be able to score even when they’re not playing at their best. The odds are horrible but there’s no way I can pick anything but a Manchester City win on Saturday.
Prediction: Man City (-500)
Over/Under analysis
Manchester City have an incredible attack and are capable of putting any team to the sword and scoring lots of goals in the process. That’s the reason why the odds for Over 2.5 goals are so bad. At -225 I simply cannot in good faith suggest backing that.
There’s a reason why those odds are so short, but they imply a 69.2% chance that there is Over 2.5 goals. When you look at both teams’ stats so far this season, the data doesn’t back up those odds.
Watford’s games are split exactly 50/50 in terms of games seeing Over 2.5 goals, as are Manchester City’s games too. Interestingly, Man City have only seen the Over land in 42.9% of their games on the road this season. Despite the incredible squad that Man City have, it seems like the data doesn’t suggest that backing the Over is correctly priced. With that being the case, we’ll back Under 2.5 goals which seems like it is underpriced at +175, which implies a probability of 36.4%.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (+175)
Best bet
Saturday’s game will be officiated by Kevin Friend. Friend has only taken charge of five games in the Premier League this season but in that timeframe, he’s given out 31 yellow cards and one red card. When he’s dishing out an average of 6.2 yellow cards per game, we need to look at which Watford players are most likely to get their names in the book against Man City.
Dennis stands out as the most likely, having already been booked six times in 12 games this year. He gets booked at a rate of one in every two games which is partly down to the job that he does. He’s key to Watford’s attacks but he often finds himself playing out wide and his defensive responsibilities see him marking the opposing team’s fullbacks or wingers. He’s going to have to do a lot of defensive work on Saturday and against City it seems likely that he’d get booked.
With plenty of bookings likely on Saturday, it might be worth looking for extra value with right-back Kiko Femenia (+500) and Moussa Sissoko (+400) could be worth a look too.
Pick: Dennis to get booked (+162)
