Qinwen Zheng is just two wins away from completing her rise up the ranks in the WTA and lifting a much-anticipated first Grand Slam title. Standing in her way is a familiar face in Dayana Yastremska, who once upon a time was one of the 25 best players in the world before getting popped with a drug suspension.
Can Yastremska complete her comeback and move one step closer to becoming the second player ever to win a grand slam title on the women’s side after coming through qualifying?
Let’s take a look at how the match should shake out with our free betting picks for the Australian Open Semifinal on Thursday, January 25.
Don't forget to also check out our Gauff vs. Sabalenka predictions. On the men's side, we've got Sinner vs. Djokovic predictions as well as Medvedev vs. Zverev picks.
Australian Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
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Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska odds
| (12) Qinwen Zheng | Dayana Yastremska | |
|---|---|---|
| -220 | Moneyline | +175 |
| -2.5 (-125) | Game spread | +2.5 (+105) |
| Over 22.5 (+100) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on January 24, 2024.
Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska match prediction
On paper, this is a mismatch. Zheng, at the ripe age of 21, has elevated her game to a new stratosphere over the last five months, only losing occasionally to the best players in the game. Yastremska, meanwhile, had never even been to the quarterfinal stage of a grand slam until this year despite reaching a career-high ranking of 21 in the world before her suspension.
This stage seems to be a tricky one, however, with the unexpected routinely becoming expected. Zheng is the better player here in theory, but she has come out looking quite nervous in her previous two matches with all the expectations in the world on her shoulders despite never going this deep into a major tournament.
Zheng has had the benefit of facing two players — Ocean Dodin and Anna Kalinskaya — in recent rounds who simply can’t go toe-to-toe with her in the pace department, and who can’t chase down her heavy forehands.
This matchup is going to be quite different, with Yastremska possessing incredible power from the back of the court to hit through just about every opponent in her way. Sure, she’s in uncharted territory in a Grand Slam semifinal, but she will come out swinging freely in a match that nobody expects her to win.
With the pressure all on the other end of the court, and with Yastremska’s exceptional weapons, she’s being treated unfairly by this line and will ultimately come out the victor. Zheng has looked a little shaky in her last two matches, and is far too volatile on serve, to afford many slip-ups here. Yastremska’s got a puncher’s chance and I believe she will emerge victorious.
Prediction: Dayana Yastremska moneyline (+175 at DraftKings)
Qinwen Zheng vs Dayana Yastremska best bet
Zheng should have dominated Kalinskaya but proceeded to play a tense first set, putting herself behind the eight-ball before eventually riding her superior game to victory.
It was quite easy for Zheng to dictate play, given she was on the front foot in all of the rallies against a player who, while capable of pushing the ball deep into the court and redirecting, didn’t hit with the same kind of power.
That all changes against a bonafide ball-basher in Yastremska. If we’re to get another flat set from Zheng, and perhaps more double faults (she leads the field in this category) with the elevated pressure, the Ukrainian challenger should surely nick a set here if she doesn’t wind up winning this one outright.
If you want to skip the moneyline and go for something safer, this is a number Yastremska really should cover with a set in her pocket. She’s had the harder schedule this week, beating three high-quality talents in Emma Navarro, Viktoria Azarenka, and Linda Noskova — the latter two hit the ball just as hard as Zheng does.
Zheng's first Grand Slam title will come soon, but it won’t come this year in Australia.
Best bet: Dayana Yastremska +2.5 games (+105 at DraftKings)
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