While Rafael Nadal was certainly tested in his quarter-final matchup against Denis Shapovalov, the chase for his record-setting 21st major title continues tonight in this semi-final matchup against No. 7 Matteo Berrettini.
Covers Experts’ resident tennis handicapper Tennis Insiders breaks down the semifinalists and matchup with our Australian Open semifinal picks.
Matteo Berrettini vs Rafael Nadal odds
| (7) Matteo Berrettini | (6) Rafael Nadal | |
|---|---|---|
| +150 | Moneyline | -188 |
| +3.5 (-120) | Match Handicap (Games) | -3.5 (-120) |
| 2.5 (-120) | Total Breaks of Serve | 3.5 (-120) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of January 27, 2022.
Australian Open men's semifinal betting preview
Matteo Berrettini betting breakdown
Berrettini has reached a third major semi-final and his big serve/forehand combination is proving pretty difficult to stop on hard/grass courts. He’s also held his nerve in fifth sets against Carlos Alcaraz & Gael Monfils.
Berrettini has displayed great consistency, reaching the quarter-finals or better at every major. However, certain weaknesses will probably prevent him from winning one.
Rafael Nadal betting breakdown
Nadal fought the heat and a stomach issue to scrape past Denis Shapovalov in five sets in the quarter-finals, and an extra day's rest before Friday's semi-final could be crucial.
Nadal has struggled more at night in Melbourne in recent years as the ball doesn’t kick up off the court as much so scheduling/weather will once again be worth noting.
Australian Open men's semifinal matchup preview
Nadal’s loopy top-spin forehand kicks into Berrettini’s backhand. Even in cooler conditions, this pattern of play hurts the Italian who prefers to slice his backhand.
Berrettini produced a serving clinic against Carreno Busta and he will need a repeat performance against Nadal.
Nadal was fortunate to emerge from his quarter-final. If he's fully fit, he should prove a very difficult matchup for the Italian. If certain areas of his game aren't firing, he could be vulnerable. This matchup is on the Spaniard's racquet.
Australian Open men's semifinal pick
- Nadal Over 20.5 games won (-110 at bet365)
