World No. 1 Iga Swiatek is in her second French Open final, where she’ll face American wunderkind Cori “Coco” Gauff — who is looking to become the youngest woman to win a Grand Slam since 17-year-old Maria Sharapova beat Serena Williams at Wimbledon in 2004.
Swiatek and Gauff made mincemeat of the draw, losing just a single set between them in 12 combined matches, en route to Saturday's final. Swiatek enters the match as a lopsided tennis betting favorite, although this French Open final is perfectly poised to be a memorable one, as both players are on the cusp of making history — for altogether different reasons.
We'll go into deeper detail on that — and break down each of the two competitors — with our free picks and predictions for the 2022 French Open Women's Final on June 4.
Swiatek vs Gauff odds
| (1) Iga Swiatek | (18) Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| -650 | Moneyline | +460 |
| -5.5 (-120) | Match handicap (games) | +5.5 (-110) |
| Over 19.5 (-125) | Total games | Under 19.5 (-130) |
| Over 2.5 (+188) | Total sets | Under 2.5 (-260) |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on June 3, 2022.
Swiatek vs Gauff picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Swiatek vs Gauff betting preview
Swiatek has won 34 matches on the bounce, one shy of the record set by Venus Williams in 2000. The 21-year-old has risen to prominence in 2022, becoming the world’s top seed in the midst of winning five successive tournaments — Doha, Indian Wells, Miami, Stuttgart, and Rome.
Swiatek has thrived since becoming the world’s top-ranked player, thanks to an unrivaled ability to adapt to different match tempos. The pressure that accompanies top seeds has actually galvanized Swiatek, who is 17-0 since ascending to the peak of women’s tennis.
After dismantling 20th-seeded Daria Kasatkina 6-2, 6-1 in the semifinal, Swiatek improved to 20-2 in her career at the French Open. She has won 13 straight matches against seeded players — and can make it 14 straight on Saturday by claiming another title.
Swiatek won the 2020 French Open — without losing a set — as an unseeded teenager, which in many ways mirrors what Gauff is trying to accomplish in Saturday’s final. However, Gauff is ranked (No. 23 in the world) and at 18 is a year younger than Swiatek was during her 2020 run.
The Polish superstar has a formidable offensive arsenal, the primary reason she hasn’t tasted defeat since February. Even two years ago, during her inaugural French Open triumph, she was not only smacking the fastest forehand winners on tour, but also ones with the highest revolutions per minute.
Her backhand is just as impressive, showcasing her ability to hit through the ball at low trajectories from either side. Her overall game has only improved since that surprising 2020 run at Roland-Garros, posing a particularly demanding and unique challenge for Gauff, who is a massive moneyline underdog.
But if anyone can pull off what would be a behemoth upset, it’s the 18th-seeded American.
Wise, poised, and experienced well beyond her 18 years, Gauff is a beacon of composure — and has the attitude and mental fortitude that will ensure she ascends to the eminent heights expected of her.
Gauff, who swatted aside Martina Trevisan 6-3, 6-1 in the semifinal, is the youngest player to reach the French Open final since Kim Clijsters in 2001. She has yet to drop a set since in the tournament and hasn’t required more than 90 minutes to dispatch any opponent.
Swiatek vs Gauff prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Swiatek to win
Gauff, pegged at +460 on the moneyline, will have to conjure an otherworldly performance to upset Swiatek and end her 34-match winning streak.
Aside from a nervy, slightly unsure half-hour spell in the fourth round against Qinwen Zheng, Swiatek has been lights-out on course to the final. Her ability to change the point of attack and hit equally as hard with both her topspin forehand and backhand provide a formidable, hard-to-defend attack.
She can also mix it up with timely drop shots. While winning 34 successive matches would burden most players, Swiatek is taking the soon-to-be unprecedented streak in stride, gaining more confidence and swagger with each victory.
That mojo, combined with her versatile and potent attack, should be enough to prevail against Gauff, although she won’t go down without doggedly scrapping for every point.
If Gauff is going to defy the staggering odds and win her first major trophy, she will have to capitalize on break-point opportunities and take full advantage of Swiatek’s only weakness: Her average second serve.
If you’re a believer in history repeating itself, Gauff could join Serena and Sharapova who, as teenagers, won their first Grand Slam titles by overcoming top-seeded players.
Unfortunately for Coco, we're not quite believers. Swiatek should outlast Gauff, but we do think it will be an epic final that goes the distance.
There's zero value in betting the favorite at such heavy juice... but there is value in betting on a competitive match — by looking at the Over on the total games prop, which is currently set at 19.5 and priced at -125.
Prediction: Iga Swiatek to win (-650)
Best bet: Swiatek to win + both players win a set
There’s no diminishing the achievement of winning six matches, without losing a set, en route to a major final, but the quality of Gauff’s opponents leaves a lot to be desired — No. 31 Elise Mertens was the only seeded player Gauff faced (in the fourth round).
Although Gauff has yet to win a set in two previous encounters against Swiatek, this particular occasion feels different, making the +320 odds on Swiatek to win the French Open in three sets a wager that is full of value.
Even at Gauff’s young age, it’s overtly apparent that she has a winner’s mentality. Coco has learned and grown from past failures and has the fearlessness only irrepressible teenagers possess.
That unquestionable determination should push the final to a third and decisive set. Gauff has a nothing-to-lose attitude, which can pose a problem for a player with everything to lose.
Swiatek isn’t just the massive favorite, she’s also looking to indelibly etch her name in tennis’ record books as the second player ever to win 35 straight matches.
Even though Swiatek clearly isn’t fazed by an inordinate amount of pressure, seeing her blink and drop a set in the face of pulling off such an extraordinary feat is a very real possibility.
Pick: Swiatek to win + both players win a set (+320)
