We’ve come to the finals of Roland Garros on the men’s side, and with one heavy favorite comes one feisty underdog.
Novak Djokovic looks poised to capture his 23rd grand slam championship but will have to be careful not to overlook a dangerous Casper Ruud.
Let’s take a look at how to bet this Sunday, June 11 final in our French Open betting picks and predictions.
French Open Men's Final picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud odds and picks
| (3) Novak Djokovic | (4) Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| -475 | Moneyline | +360 |
| -5.5 (-120) | Game spread | +5.5 (+100) |
| Over 37.5 (-105) | Total games | Under 37.5 (-115) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 11, 2023.
Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud match prediction
Ruud has certainly found his form on the clay here in Paris, ripping through some very difficult opponents in short order. He took out one of the hottest clay-courters on tour in Nicolas Jarry before making minced meat of Holger Rune and Alexander Zverev, who are two of the best in the world on the surface.
Those matches require a bit of context, though. Jarry was worn physically from weeks of nonstop tennis, and Rune seemed drained physically from the onset of their match. After that, Zverev’s level was nowhere near as good as it had been for the entire tournament perhaps due to nerves.
Whatever the reason, I think Ruud has been a bit fortunate to make it to this point relatively unscathed. Facing the greatest tennis player of all time will be a hurdle he won’t clear. I expect Djokovic to improve to 5-0 over Ruud.
Prediction: Djokovic moneyline (-475 at DraftKings)
Novak Djokovic vs Casper Ruud best bet
The only two times Ruud has taken a set off of Djokovic were at the ATP Finals — an end-of-season event that often has some wacky results. On clay, Ruud has lost rather routinely with all sets ending 7-5, 6-4 or 6-3.
Djokovic has seemed to overlook his opponents at times in this tournament and come out flat, but even in that case I still think we could see a four-set under. Ruud’s backhand is a massive liability, and his offense won’t be good enough to make up for it here. Djokovic is one of the best defenders in the world and will extract more errors out of the Ruud backhand than the Norwegian’s opponents to this point have.
That’s not to say he’s played clean tennis to this point, either. As I highlighted above, Ruud was gifted some breaks and sets by his opponents in the last few matches, and even then struggled to close with the lead. He’s going to be up against a very difficult opponent here, much more difficult than anyone he’s faced in weeks.
Best bet: Under 37.5 Games (-115 at DraftKings)
