The French Open semifinals are all set, with the women’s draw taking center stage on Thursday in Paris to set up the first final of the weekend.
The first match of the day will be a rematch of the 2022 Roland Garros final, as Iga Swiatek is set to take on Coco Gauff in French Open odds. With the World No. 1 looking unstoppable this week and controlling the head-to-head history, what can we expect from both players?
Let’s take a look at how the match should shake out in our free Swiatek vs. Gauff predictions for June 6.
French Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Swiatek vs Gauff odds
| (1) Iga Swiatek | (3) Coco Gauff | |
|---|---|---|
| -650 | Moneyline | +475 |
| -5.5 (-135) | Game spread | +5.5 (+115) |
| Over 18.5 (-125) | Total games | Under 18.5 (+105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 5, 2024.
Swiatek vs Gauff match prediction
Iga Swiatek has won the French Open in three of the last four seasons and has only lost twice at Roland Garros – one being when she debuted here as a teenager just before the pandemic. She’s been a hard woman to knock off anywhere, but here in Paris, she may be building a run of form reminiscent of Rafael Nadal.
On clay, in particular, Swiatek’s devastating topspin forehand is insanely difficult to combat. As a result, she’s yet to lose more than twice in a season on the surface over the last five seasons.
That leads us to Thursday’s semifinal, where Coco Gauff should be in for a really tough test. She’s only defeated Swiatek once in 11 tries, which came on a quicker outdoor hardcourt last year, and stylistically, this is a matchup nightmare given the glaring weakness in her game.
Gauff’s forehand has long been talked about as the biggest thing she needs to improve to reach the top of the women’s game. While she’s achieved a top-five ranking and won a Grand Slam, her forehand can’t come close to competing with Swiatek’s here, especially with how it’s looked this week.
Ultimately, it will take a very bad day for Swiatek to hand Gauff a spot in Saturday's final.
Prediction: Swiatek moneyline (-650 at DraftKings)
Swiatek vs Gauff best bet
This is admittedly an incredibly sharp line by oddsmakers, and every bet involved in this match offers little value. The last meeting between these two took place a couple of weeks ago in Rome and ended 6-4, 6-3 in favor of Swiatek. With a spread of 5.5 games and a total of 18.5, it would seem the books are correctly using that as a barometer of how this one will go.
I will point out, however, that Rome is not Roland Garros – especially not to Swiatek. She defeated Gauff 6-4, 6-2 in the quarterfinal stage of last year’s French Open and took her out 6-1, 6-3 in the 2022 French Open final. Given she’s had some more crooked scorelines in all of her wins over the American, the smart play here is to fade the narrative that this might be close after how their meeting in Rome went.
This clay is now much drier after a ton of rain in the first week, and with that, there’s an opening here for Swiatek to run away with this one behind a forehand that will be at full strength in these improved conditions.
Best bet: Under 18.5 games (+105 at DraftKings)
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