With Novak Djokovic’s probable exclusion and uncertainty surrounding Rafael Nadal’s fitness, the 2022 US Open should provide a rare and golden opportunity for somebody else to rise to the occasion.
Djokovic will miss his second major of the year unless the government changes its vaccination stance in the coming days. However unlikely, there is a slim chance he’ll be offered an exemption. But, for now, it’s best to plan for a US Open devoid of the 21-time Grand Slam champion.
Nadal will play, but at what capacity? He has played one match since tearing an abdomen muscle during the Wimbledon quarterfinal, a straight-set loss to Borna Coric at the Cincinnati Open. The touch-and-go nature of his health leaves the door agape for Daniil Medvedev, Carols Alcaraz, and Nick Kyrgios, among others.
US Open 2022 Men's odds
| Players | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Daniil Medvedev | +230 |
| Rafael Nadal | +380 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Garfia | +500 |
| Nick Kyrgios | +1,000 |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | +1,600 |
| Jannik Sinner | +1,800 |
| Taylor Fritz | +2,200 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | +2,900 |
| Matteo Berrettini | +2,900 |
| Borna Coric | +3,600 |
| Cameron Norrie | +4,000 |
| Hubert Hurkacz | +4,500 |
| Casper Rudd | +6,500 |
| Andrey Rublev | +6,500 |
| Pablo Carreno Busta | +6,500 |
| Martin Cilic | +6,500 |
| Denis Shapovalov | +10,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of August 28, 2022.
US Open 2022 Men's favorites
Who's hot
Daniil Medvedev (+230)
Daniil Medvedev is keen as mustard to get the defense of his US Open championship underway. The world No. 1 wasn’t allowed to play at Wimbledon due to his Russian descent. The 2021 US Open champion is by no means white-hot but has done enough to convince bettors he’s ready to win back-to-back majors for the first time.
The Russian plays his best tennis on hardcourt and has a staggeringly impressive 74% win rate on the surface. He advanced to three finals in his previous six tournaments and lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas in a tightly contested three-set semifinal at his last event, the Cincinnati Open. However, only one of his three recent finals — the Los Cabos Open — resulted in a title.
Rafael Nadal (+380)
Nadal is a favorite despite his unremitting injury concerns. The Spaniard can never be counted out — such is his irrepressible desire, resilience, and winning pedigree. Nadal played through a torn abdomen muscle during the Wimbledon quarterfinal to overcome Taylor Fritz, a feat only a few could imagine emulating.
A palpable lack of tennis and match fitness since incurring that injury is the only thing that will prevent Nadal from enjoying another deep run at Flushing Meadows. We’ll soon see if rust or inadequate fitness levels will derail his quest for a 23rd Grand Slam. Though, as we’ve seen on innumerable occasions throughout his illustrious career, Nadal has an unrivaled knack for persevering in the face of seemingly insurmountable adversity.
Carlos Alcaraz (+500)
Remarkably, Carlos Alcaraz is still just 19 years old, as the generational Spanish talent is enjoying a breakout season. He is touted as the next Nadal, a comparison that could unnerve the most poised and experienced players. But Alcaraz, who has won four titles in 2022, has taken the striking parallels to arguably history’s greatest tennis player in stride.
After all of his recent success, Alcaraz is still searching for his first Grand Slam title. He progressed to the French Open quarterfinal, his best result at a major. He made it to the final in two of four previous tournaments, but lost both. Three of his four tour titles this season came on clay, the surface on which he’s considered a specialist. Once he wins one major, the floodgates will undoubtedly open. Look for the burgeoning superstar to make a statement at Flushing Meadows.
Who's not
Matteo Berrettini (+2,900)
For all of his indisputable talent, Matteo Berrettini cannot find a way to win a hardcourt title. He’s won seven titles on tour, none of which on hardcourt. His two US Open warmup tournaments — at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open — have done nothing to assuage doubts that he cannot win on the fast and unforgiving surface.
Berrettini lost in the opening round of both aforementioned warmup events and is a subpar 8-7 on hardcourt in the current campaign. He made it to the Swiss Open final after withdrawing from Wimbledon due to a positive COVID-19 test. However, the Swiss Open is played on clay, not his bogey surface.
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US Open 2022 Men's sleepers
Players to watch
Nick Kyrgios (+1,000)
While nobody knows which version of the enigmatic Australian will show up, Kyrgios is enjoying the best run of his overwhelmingly inconsistent career. He fell at Wimbledon’s final hurdle, losing in four sets to Djokovic. That was Kyrgios’ first appearance in a Grand Slam final.
He followed that career-best result by winning the Citi Open in early August, and also advanced to the Canadian Open quarterfinal before being ousted by eventual winner Hubert Hurkacz. So, watch out for Kygrios if he can consistently execute his lethal serve, and stay focused on tennis while preoccupying opponents with his unorthodox yet sometimes effective on-court antics.
Jannik Sinner (+1,800)
The world No. 13 has been knocking on the door for a while. With a 19-5 record, he has enjoyed a strong hardcourt season. The 21-year-old has an all-time 71% hardcourt win rate and made a strong account of himself at the last major, losing to Djokovic in the quarterfinal of Wimbledon. Sinner won the Croatia Open — played on clay — on the back of Wimbledon. That was the first of six non-hardcourt titles.
This season’s poor record against Top-10 opponents represents Sinner’s primary concern. He’s 3-7 against elite players in 2022, a record that must improve if he has any chance of making an indelible impression at the US Open.
Cam Norrie (+4,000)
Ranked No. 74 in the world at the start of 2021, Cam Norrie was an unknown quantity. However, he has made a meteoric rise since and is now the world No. 9. Norrie enjoyed his best result at a Grand Slam when he lost on home soil to Djokovic in the 2022 Wimbledon semifinal.
After Wimbledon, the British No. 1 lost to Medvedev in the Los Cabos Open final. He also acquitted himself well at the Cincinnati Open, losing to eventual champion Coric in the semifinal.
Long-shots to avoid
Dominic Thiem (+14,000)
Dominic Thiem is a former champion in this event, but don’t let that convince you to back him. The 2020 US Open victor has endured a woeful stint, primarily due to a severe wrist injury. He hasn’t played much tennis in the current campaign and has a 7-9 record in 2022. Thiem was forced to withdraw from the Cincinnati Open for a second straight year.
The 28-year-old is currently playing in the Winston-Salem Open and has a quarterfinal to look forward to. But avoid backing him even if he somehow manages to win the tournament, as it would represent his first title since 2020.
Casper Ruud (+6,500)
While a fantastic talent, Casper Ruud is as single-dimensional as elite tennis players come. He has won three titles in 2022, all of which are on clay. Seven of his eight tournament wins also came on the surface made famous by Roland-Garros. Ruud has won one hardcourt tournament, which occurred last year in San Diego.
The 23-year-old has a bright future but hasn’t advanced past the third round in four previous US Open appearances and has an underwhelming 56% win rate on hardcourt.
US Open 2022 Men's key trends and notes
A decade has passed since first-time winners triumphed at three consecutive US Opens.
Juan del Potro, Nadal, Djokovic, and Andy Murray were the US Open winners between 2009 and 2012. That four-year span marked the last time first-time winners won in at least three consecutive tournaments.
It would mark three consecutive first-time winners if a player who has never won the US Open prevails.
Medvedev is looking to become the first back-to-back winner since 2007-08.
Medvedev has a golden opportunity to become the first back-to-back US Open winner since Roger Federer won five on the bounce from 2004-08.
Nadal is trying to win three majors in the same season for the second time.
Nadal has never won all four majors in the same season, referred to as the calendar year Grand Slam. He has, however, won three majors in the same calendar year once before, back in 2010. He'd repeat that feat with a victory at the 2022 US Open.
