Tennis legend Serena Williams will make what many expect to be her final appearance in the women’s U.S. Open, a tournament the 23-time Grand Slam champion has won six times in single’s play.
The 40-year-old opened as a +5,000 U.S. Open odds longshot to claim what may be her final tournament before she officially retires from the sport.
Williams has endured a rough 2022 season, competing in just three tournaments, two of which resulted in first-round exits.
Ahead of what's likely Williams' final bow, we're previewing the legendary star's chances in Flushing Meadows and taking a look at her U.S. Open odds.
Serena Williams US Open preview
Signs of decline
In June of 2022, Williams returned to tennis when she paired up with Wimbledon runner-up Ons Jabeur (+2,500 to win the U.S. Open) in the Eastbourne International. The pairing reached the third round of the event but retired early due to an injury to Jabeur.
Following the Eastbourne International, Williams received a wild-card bid to Wimbledon, where she had previously reached the finals 11 times in 20 appearances.
Williams entered as the fifth choice (+1,200) on the odds board ahead of The Championships but suffered a shocking first-round loss to Harmony Tan in a match that lasted more than three hours at the All England Club. The unseeded French player defeated Williams in a 7-5, 1-6, 7-6 (10-7) victory.
In August, Williams stepped on the hard court for the Canadian Open and defeated Spain’s Nuria Parrizas Diaz 6-3, 6-4 in the first round before falling to Belinda Bencic 6-2, 6-4 in the second round. Her victory over Parrizas Diaz marked her first singles win in 430 days.
In the midst of the tournament, Williams also announced in a Vogue article that she planned to “evolve away” from tennis after the upcoming U.S. Open.
She followed up her early departure in the Canadian Open with a first-round defeat to 2021 U.S. Open winner Emma Raducanu in the Western and Southern Open, also on hard court, in mid-August.
U.S. Open draw gives hope
Currently ranked No. 608 in the world, Williams drew a match with 80th-ranked Danka Kovinic in the first round and will face the Montenegrin on Monday, Aug. 29, the opening day of the U.S. Open at Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in Flushing Meadows, N.Y.
The queen and her court.
— US Open Tennis (@usopen) August 24, 2022
Serena Williams was putting in WORK this morning in Ashe. pic.twitter.com/yC45wMUqJ2
Williams is favored to defeat her opponent and would next confront the winner of the meeting between 24-year-old Romanian Jaqueline Cristian and No. 2 seed Anett Kontaveit. The No. 1 overall seed in the 2022 U.S. Open is Iga Swiatek (+400), the reigning French Open champ.
Kovinic has lost her last five singles matches on tour, has never won a tour singles title, nor has she competed in singles against Williams before. However, she’s no stranger to upsetting high-profile stars, like Raducanu, whom she sent home in the second round of the 2022 Australian Open.
Should Williams prevail in the first round, she’s likely to next challenge Kontaveit, the No. 2 player in the WTA singles rankings. She won the 2022 St. Petersburg Ladies’ Trophy in February but has been fairly inconsistent since battling COVID-19 in the spring. She’s also never advanced past the fourth round of the U.S. Open.
Kontaveit may be the most vulnerable of the top seeds, and her recent form in majors makes her a viable upset target, especially at the hands of Serena.
Williams’ potential third-round match could set up a clash between 2022 French Open semifinalist Martina Trevisan, the 27th seed, or possibly Ajla Tomljanovic, who reached the quarterfinals of the Western and Southern Open and Wimbledon, where she fell to eventual 2022 champ Elena Rybakina.
If Williams can somehow muster all of her strength and play through her lingering injuries to see fourth-round action, she’s probably going to meet 2021 U.S. Open finalist Leylah Fernandez, the No. 14 seed and a +3,500 contender to win the title.
From there, the road is almost unfathomable for Williams in her current state. Barring an upset, fifth seed Jabeur is her likely opponent in the quarterfinals, and No. 7 Simona Halep (+700 to win the title), who just won the Canadian Open, could be waiting in the semis.
Not only has Halep regained her form recently after overcoming injury, but she is one of the last people to defeat Wiliams in a major final.
Not doing it alone
The story of Serena Williams isn't complete without her sister, Venus, so it's fitting the former's final Grand Slam will see her and her sister's incredible partnership renew.
Serena and Venus were given a wild-card entry to the U.S. Open on Saturday, allowing the pair to team up for the first time in nearly five years. The sisters have won 14 women's doubles Grand Slams, including two U.S. Opens.
14-0 in grand slam finals together is my favorite Williams sisters stat https://t.co/G5ArE1AarC
— Gregg Rosenthal (@greggrosenthal) August 27, 2022
Williams’ U.S. Open record to close on a down note
The last time Williams appeared in the U.S. Open and failed to reach the semifinal round was in 2007, when she lost in the quarterfinals to Justine Henin, who proceeded to beat Williams’ sister Venus in the semis and eventually won the final over Svetlana Kuznetsova.
The following year, Williams bounced back to claim her third career U.S. Open title and secured her last three U.S. Open championships from 2012-2014.
Since 2015, Williams has made it to the semis three times (2015, 2016, 2020) and the finals twice, losing to Naomi Osaka in 2018 and Bianca Andreescu in 2019. Williams was absent from the 2017 U.S. Open while pregnant and missed last year’s tournament because of injury.
While it’s difficult to imagine Williams closing out her unparalleled tennis career with an early exit in an event in which she’s been a prominent fixture, signs point to a sendoff in one of the first three rounds.
A new wave of stars has emerged, with a new Big 3 (Coco Gauff, Halep, and Swiatek) dominating the court, with at least one of those three in the semifinal round of each of the three majors this season.
No matter where Williams finishes at the 2022 U.S. Open, her impact will long be felt in a sport she was a part of for three decades. This may not be how she hoped to evolve away from tennis, but the way in which tennis has evolved because of her presence is something the next generation of players will remember for a long time to come, even in her imminent absence.
Serena Williams US Open odds
Serena Williams outright odds
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
| Win tournament | +4,000 |
| To make the second round | Yes -400 / No +300 |
| To make the third round | Yes +110 / No -150 |
| To make the fourth round | Yes +240 / No -334 |
| To make the quarterfinals | Yes +500 / No -800 |
| To make the semifinals | Yes +800 / No -1,400 |
| To make the the final | Yes +2,000 / No -6,600 |
Serena Williams vs Danka Kovinic odds
| Serena Williams | Danka Kovinic | |
|---|---|---|
| -400 | Moneyline | +300 |
| -4.5 (-125) | Spread | +4.5 (-110) |
| Over 20.5 (-110) | Games | Under 20.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of bet365 on August 27, 2022.
Serena Williams US Open FAQs
Serena Williams has won the U.S. Open six times in women's singles, and twice in women's doubles.
Serena Williams will face Danka Kovinic in the first round of the U.S. Open.
Serena Williams' outright odds are +4,000.
