Casper Ruud looks to secure his second Grand Slam final appearance of the season when he faces Karen Khachanov at the US Open semifinal on Friday.
Khachanov will appear in his first major semifinal, while Ruud hopes to advance to his maiden US Open final. The surprise semi-finalists have played each other once before, with Ruud winning on clay over two years ago.
Neither player had made it past the third round at a US Open before their current runs. It’s Khachanov’s seventh appearance at Flushing Meadows, while Ruud has played in four previous US Opens.
Our US Open Men's semifinal betting picks get to the bottom of who has the edge to advance.
Khachanov vs Ruud odds
| (27) Karen Khachanov | (5) Casper Ruud | |
|---|---|---|
| +165 | Moneyline | -215 |
| +3.5 (-120) | Game spread | -3.5 (-105) |
| Over 40.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 40.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on September 8, 2022.
Khachanov vs Ruud picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Khachanov vs Ruud betting preview
Casper Ruud has not looked like a player with just one hardcourt title on his resume. The World No. 7 won his only hardcourt event in San Diego last year, while his other eight titles occurred on clay, the surface contributing most to his Top-10 ranking.
The clay-court specialist trained at Rafael Nadal’s tennis academy and is touted to win many titles on the muddy, slower surface. But Ruud has shown maturity and adaptiveness beyond his years at Flushing Meadows, expertly managing the high-tempo surface.
Ruud started the tournament on the back of advancing to the Canadian Open semifinal, a primary US Open warmup event. This season, he is 14-4 on hardcourt and has converted on 41% of break-point opportunities. The Norwegian must be that clinical on any opportunities that arise against Khachanov’s relentlessly fierce serve.
Ruud dropped one set in the first two matches before his most challenging and exerting match against American Tommy Paul in the third round, which went the distance in a five-set thriller.
The Norwegian followed that resilient display with a four-set triumph over Frenchman Corentin Moutet and a comprehensive straight-set quarterfinal victory over world No. 14 Matteo Berrettini. Ruud’s victory over Berrettini was his most emphatic and impressive outing.
He handled Berrettini’s mammoth serve with aplomb, which bodes well for what lies ahead. Khachanov has a monstrous serve that will force Ruud to remain poised and patient, with the impetus placed squarely on being opportunistic. The Russian won 77% of his first-serve points against Nick Kyrgios in the quarterfinal and serves as well as most players on tour when he’s at his best.
Khachanov covers the court well for his towering 6-foot-6 frame. However, he relies heavily on his serve and won’t want to be dragged into extended rallies with the more agile, quick, and fit Norwegian.
Khachanov vs Ruud prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Ruud moneyline
If Ruud wants to elevate his status on hardcourt, he’ll have to show he can come through tests like this, against lower-ranked yet sneakily dangerous opponents.
Khachanov hasn’t won a title since 2018, but 10 of his 11 titles have come on hardcourt, a stat that underpins just how formidable he is on the surface. Khachanov, the underdog in his three previous matches, has also shown a recent irrepressible ability to defy the odds.
However, Ruud should use his superior athleticism, speed, and pinpoint accuracy to overcome Khachanov. In addition, Khachanov’s previous two matches were grueling five-setters, which might take a toll on the imposing Russian if the match extends into the fourth set and beyond.
Khachanov is playing the best tennis of his career. Broken just four times in the last two matches, he has an elite serve that can keep him in any battle. This semifinal is bound for at least four sets if he executes his serve at the level he has thus far at the US Open.
However, even though he’s not renowned for being an elite hardcourt player, Ruud is ready to announce himself on the hardcourt Grand Slam scene. The monstrous-hitting Khachanov provides the perfect platform for Ruud to get over the hump and advance to his second Grand Slam final, but first on hardcourt.
His lack of success on the surface won’t stand the test of time, as Ruud has no glaring weaknesses and should utilize his well-roundedness to vanquish the surprise Russian.
Prediction: Casper Ruud moneyline (-200 at BetMGM)
Best bet: Ruud in 4 sets
Ruud is proving a lot of naysayers wrong. The 23-year-old has a golden opportunity to win his first major and won’t let all his superb work go to waste. He won’t have everything his way, however.
Khachanov has proven himself a formidable figure, especially if his serve connects as in the previous five rounds. He has played out of his skin and battled heroically to advance this far. But Ruud is too skillful and has mitigated his mistakes, ensuring he controls the lion’s share of points.
Ruud should prevail, but Khachanov’s serve is too good not to win a set.
Pick: Casper Ruud to win in four sets (+300 at BetMGM)
