Serena Williams begins her US Open swan song with a first-round match against 80th-ranked Danka Kovinic at Arthur Ashe Stadium.
The 23-time Grand Slam winner hopes to culminate her illustrious career with a fairy tale ending, though US Open betting odds have her as a distinct longshot. Williams has won six US Open titles and would love nothing more than to add a seventh to her jam-packed trophy cabinet before permanently hanging up the racket. Her sixth title at the US Open came eight years ago, in 2014.
Get our betting picks and predictions for Williams vs. Kovinic below.
Williams vs Kovinic odds
| Serena Williams | Danka Kovinic | |
|---|---|---|
| -370 | Moneyline | +285 |
| -5.5 (+115) | Game spread | +5.5 (-140) |
| Over 20.5 (+110) | Total games | Under 20.5 (-135) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on Aug. 28 2022.
Williams vs Kovinic picks
- Prediction: Williams to win (-400)
- Prediction: Over 19.5 games (-125)
- Best bet: Williams to win in straight sets (-154)
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Williams vs Kovinic betting preview
While Williams will have an entire nation and millions of tennis fans worldwide rooting for her, the task at hand is made immeasurably more challenging by her recent lack of time on court.
Expect a sell-out crowd for Monday’s match, which marks the first time the two players face each other. The boisterous crowd should lift Williams, who has played just four games since returning to the tour at Wimbledon in July.
Williams vs Kovinic predictions and best bet
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the players and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this match. Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this match or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Side Analysis
Williams lost in three sets to 115th-ranked Harmony Tan at Wimbledon in her first match back. However, she followed that performance by securing her first win of the season, a straight-sets victory over Nuria Parrizas-Diaz at the Canadian Open.
The win against the 61st-ranked Spaniard was Williams’ first in 14 months, with her previous triumph coming against compatriot Danielle Collins in the third round of the 2021 French Open. Williams fell in the second round to world No. 13 Belinda Bencic in straight sets (6-2, 6-4).
Williams returned to US soil at the Cincinnati Open, where she was ousted in the first round (6-4, 6-0) by 2021 US Open champion Emma Raducanu.
Kovinic enters the US Open on the back of consecutive first-round exits. She lost in straight sets on the grass at Eastbourne to 67th-ranked Magda Linette and then fell to 57th-ranked Jasmine Paolini at the BNP Paribas Poland Open in late July.
The 27-year-old is 6-6 on hardcourt this season and has a 43% all-time record on the surface. Kovinic ascended to 58th in the world in 2015, her best ranking since turning pro in 2010. She made it to the third round of the Australian Open and French Open earlier in 2022, the furthest she’s advanced at a major.
She hasn’t reached the third round in four previous US Open appearances and was eliminated in the first round in 2021 by Kristyna Pliskova.
The 27-year-old from Montenegro represents a favorable first-round draw for Williams, who, due to her 410 world ranking, could have been pitted against a Top-10 opponent. If she gets past Kovinic, Williams will probably face a markedly more daunting prospect in the second round against second-ranked Anett Kontaveit.
While an encouraging draw, Kovinic should still offer Williams a stern test. It’s not Williams’ losing 1-3 season record that is most concerning, but her discernible lack of match time. It will also be hot and muggy, which favors the younger and more practiced Montenegrin.
However, sheer willpower and the raucous Arthur Ashe crowd should be enough to push Williams into the second round. It’s crucial for Williams to end the match in straight sets, as a third and decisive set could prematurely end her final farewell.
Prediction: Williams to win (-400 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
Williams should win the contest in straight sets. However, the match probably won’t be a cakewalk for the 23-time Grand Slam winner.
Expect one set to go to a tie-break, with the other seeing nine or 10 games. As a result, the game total should eclipse the 19.5 mark.
Prediction: Over 19.5 games (-125 at BetMGM)
Best bet
Williams will want to end this match as quickly as possible. Conditions should be fairly sapping, which, due to her limited workload, doesn’t bode well for the soon-to-be 41-year-old.
With that in mind, Williams could struggle mightily if the match goes the distance. The legendary American will want to avoid a third set at all costs, resulting in a straight-sets victory.
Pick: Serena Williams in straight sets (-154 at BetMGM)
