We’ve arrived at the US Open semifinal stage on the men’s side, and in the second match of the day on Friday, we’ll see the defending champion here face off against the 2021 champion.
Can Daniil Medvedev finally find a way through Carlos Alcaraz, or will the Spaniard continue to dominate here in Queens?
Let’s take a look at the US Open odds and how the match should shake out.
US Open Men's Semifinals picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev odds and picks
| (1) Carlos Alcaraz | (3) Daniil Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| -360 | Moneyline | +285 |
| -5.5 (-120) | Game spread | +5.5 (+100) |
| Over 36.5 (-115) | Total games | Under 36.5 (-105) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of Sept. 7, 2023.
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev match prediction
It sure seems at this point that Daniil Medvedev has no answer for Carlos Alcaraz.
After the Russian took out Alcaraz at Wimbledon a couple of years ago, the Spaniard responded with two straight-set wins this year – one at Indian Wells, and one on his way to the Wimbledon title this summer.
Alcaraz’s hyper-aggressive style is unlike anyone’s, and for that reason, he poses a unique threat to Medvedev. While many can’t hit through the Russian’s insane defense, Alcaraz can go for small margins, paint lines, and end points.
I do think this match will be a bit closer than their battles in the past. After all, this surface is much more preferable for Medvedev and Alcaraz didn’t exactly look great in his win over Alexander Zverev. The second set he played was downright dominant, but he was outplayed for parts of the first and looked flat in the third.
That could make this match interesting, but the ability of Alcaraz to bring Medvedev to the net with his drop shot and exploit his deep court position should ultimately give him the win.
Prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-365 at DraftKings)
Carlos Alcaraz vs Daniil Medvedev best bet
When these two met on grass, Alcaraz was a modest 3.5-game favorite. Now, Alcaraz lacked experience on grass, but so did Medvedev. Medvedev had looked much worse on grass than Alcaraz in his limited number of matches on the surface, and it was clear the self-proclaimed hardcourt specialist was out of his element.
So, getting 5.5 games here? It’s a delight. Medvedev’s loss to Alcaraz on grass was excusable, as was his loss on the hardcourts at Indian Wells which are so slow, they play like clay.
Medvedev should be able to put forth his best performance yet against Alcaraz, and I think he’s played some exceptional tennis in the lead-up to this match. I was particularly impressed with his ability to erase a deficit against Alex De Minaur and an early break against Andrey Rublev, looking the part of a tournament favorite.
Medvedev can win this match, and he can win this tournament. He is a master strategist, and it’s unlikely the same tactics which have lifted Alcaraz to victory in the past will work quite as well on a hardcourt where the Russian is so comfortable, he won his first career grand slam.
Best bet: Medvedev +5.5 Games (+100 at DraftKings)
