World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is one win away from reaching his second major final of the season, but he meets a hungry 20-year-old Jack Draper who's breezed through this draw without dropping a set.
Sinner is the overwhelming US Open odds favorite to defeat the southpaw slugger from Britain, and my free betting picks expect him to do just that when the two meet on Friday, September 6.
US Open Men's Semifinal picks and predictions
- Prediction: Sinner moneyline (-600 at bet365)
- Best bet: Sinner to win 3-0 (+125 at bet365)
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper odds
| (1) Jannik Sinner | (25) Jack Draper | |
|---|---|---|
| -650 | Moneyline | +450 |
| -6.5 (-110) | Game spread | +6.5 (-120) |
| Over 35.5 (-120) | Total games | Under 35.5 (-110) |
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/4.
Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper match prediction
This would be the perfect bookend to Jannik Sinner's Grand Slam season; he opened his 2024 campaign with an Australian Open title, and winning his first US Open title would firmly cement the 22-year-old Italian as the No. 1 player in the world.
He has all the ingredients he needs to win big titles on cement; he’s a terrific mover with a massive serve and a forehand combo. His backhand is better than average and his improving return game is why he’s won a second-best 30 break points during this tournament.
The 22-year-old Italian broke Daniil Medvedev five times in their quarterfinal matchup, and I suspect he'll have similar success against big-serving Jack Draper.
Draper's rolled through this tourney without dropping a set. He’s bashed his massive lefty serve for 46 aces and has won a whopping 81% of his first service points. He cracked 40 winners in his quarterfinal victory over Alex de Minaur, but his four double faults added to his tourney tally of 21 — and that’s where Sinner has the edge.
These two play big-boy tennis and Sinner has been the biggest boy on the asphalt. He’s a far more experienced player and has won more matches (47) and titles (four) than anyone else on hard courts this year. Draper is on a nice run but his competition was well below Sinner’s level, and even de Minaur was hobbling.
Prediction: Jannik Sinner moneyline (-600 at bet365)
Jannik Sinner vs Jack Draper best bet
On top of Sinner advancing to the US Open final, I don't suspect it'll be very close. He's won three of the biggest hard court titles this season (Australian Open, Miami, and Cincinnati) and enters this matchup riding an 11-match winning streak. He’s the tour leader in hardcourt wins (47) and titles (4) and is coming off a convincing, four-set victory over a former champion in Medvedev.
The Italian has been mostly dominant over the past week and change. He’s dropped three sets and has allowed a maximum of two games in 10 of his 16 sets against terrific competition. That domination is what wins championships and Sinner's a proven champ who knows how to win these high-pressure matches.
Draper is playing the biggest match of his life and he'll be nervous playing against the hottest player in the biggest tennis venue in the world. He hasn’t faced a stiff test yet and has served as big as anyone can, but the double faults are beginning to creep in, and he’ll feel the heat as Sinner returns as well as anyone.
The Brit will have to play flawless tennis to win even a set — and I don’t believe he has it in him.
Best bet: Jannik Sinner to win 3-0 (+125 at bet365)
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