US Open Women's Semifinal Odds & Predictions: Can Sabalenka Fend Off American Underdog?

The women’s semifinals will take center stage of the US Open odds on Thursday night — and to get things started, we’ll see yet another young American looking to become the second straight champion at their home Grand Slam.

Emma Navarro has capped off a breakthrough 2024 season with a great run in New York, and will now have to conquer the beast that is tournament favorite Aryna Sabalenka. Our Navarro vs. Sabalenka predictions break down her chances to go along with our free betting picks below.

US Open Women's Semifinal picks and predictions

• Prediction: Sabalenka moneyline (-400 at bet365)
• Best bet: Navarrao +1.5 sets (+100 at DraftKings)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9/4.

Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka match prediction

We should be treated to a good one to kick things off at Arthur Ashe Stadium, considering how the two matches between these players have gone.

Navarro slayed Sabalenka in a three-set thriller earlier in the year at Indian Wells to move into her first 1000-level quarterfinal, and while the World No. 2 got her back in straight sets months later in the fourth round of the French Open, there were still some positives to take away.

The young American found a way to land 73% of her first serves, and on a surface she doesn’t prefer still managed to limit Sabalenka to just three breaks of serve before the final game of the match. This one will shift to a friendlier surface for Navarro, and while that should help things remain close, I’m still not sure it’ll mean a win.

Sabalenka was not broken in that match at Roland Garros, even on an off night on serve which saw her land her first delivery just 60% of the time. Now, we’re seeing a much better version of Sabalenka and one that just made it through one of the most in-form and talented players in the world in Qinwen Zheng.

I expect Sabalenka to struggle with nerves, but for Navarro — in the biggest match of her young career — the tension could be even higher. Expect a good showing from the American in what will ultimately be a losing effort.

Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka moneyline (-400 at bet365)

Emma Navarro vs Aryna Sabalenka best bet

Yes, Sabalenka got the monkey off her back last year by lifting a Grand Slam trophy for the first time in Australia, something she was able to back up with another win earlier in the year. That doesn’t mean the Belarusian doesn’t still have demons she’s fighting — particularly at this tournament.

She failed to win back-to-back US Open semifinals she really should have won in 2021 and 2022 before barely skating by to the final last year, where she fell as a decisive favorite to Coco Gauff.

With an experienced Leylah Fernandez on the other side of the court three years ago and a lead in the third set over Iga Swiatek in 2022, we should be sitting here talking about Sabalenka as a finalist in her last three trips to New York.

This is a stage that's troubled her, however, and after being bageled in the first set of last year’s semifinal by Madison Keys, she barely survived in two tiebreak sets to follow before her disappointing loss to Gauff. This won't be easy for Sabalenka, and with the way Navarro is running, I think negotiating a set is very much in the cards.

The American will have the crowd on her side here — something that's hurt Sabalenka at this tournament in the past. After another commanding performance on serve where she landed 71% against Paula Badosa and won 71% of those points, I think she should put up a great fight as the underdog.

Her serve’s improved by leaps and bounce over the months, since she’s already claimed one win over Sabalenka I think confidence will be running high and this one will go the distance.

Best bet: Emma Navarro to win a set (+100 at DraftKings)

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