Wimbledon Men's Final Odds & Predictions: Alcaraz Avenges Last Year's Defeat to Djokovic

World No. 2 Novak Djokovic seeks a record eighth Wimbledon title yet is the Wimbledon odds underdog when he meets defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in a rematch of their five-set, 2023 Wimbledon final.

Alcaraz could become the sixth man in the Open Era to win the French Open and Wimbledon in the same season and the last to do so since Djokovic pulled off that feat in 2018.

It’s always special when these two meet, and my Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions and free betting picks for Sunday’s finale expect the 21-year-old Spaniard to come out on top on Sunday, July 14. 

Wimbledon Men's Final picks and predictions

• Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)
• Best bet: Carlos Alcaraz -1.5 sets (+130 at DraftKings)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 7-13-2024.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic match prediction

No. 3 Carlos Alcaraz and No. 2 Novak Djokovic will meet for the sixth time as professionals and third time in a Grand Slam when the All-England Club hosts what should be an incredible finale.

This Wimbledon run has not been easy for Alcaraz. The defending French Open and Wimbledon champion survived a third-round scare vs. Frances Tiafoe but dropped just one set across his last three matches leading up to Sunday’s encounter with Djokovic.

His past matches against Djokovic haven’t been easy either as the Serbian legend boasts a 3-2 record over his Spanish rival with Djokovic turning Carlitos into Gumby in their 2023 French Open semi.

Djokovic is seeking a record eight Wimbledon titles and Sunday marks his record-setting 37th Grand Slam final appearance. He’s four weeks removed from knee surgery yet has dropped two sets through five matches without any real test, nor has he faced a Top 10 player.

Djokovic survived some long, punishing rallies in Friday’s semifinal with Lorenzo Musetti, but Alcaraz is a different beast. Alcaraz can win in numerous ways with huge weapons from both wings with an improving serve and volley game that hurt Djokovic in last year's final. Djokovic is as tough as there is on grass, but Alcaraz should successfully defend his title. 

Prediction: Alcaraz moneyline (-145 at DraftKings)

Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic best bet

I like Alcaraz to win his fourth consecutive Grand Slam final, but he’s dropped at least one set in each of his past four matches, and the first set in three of those clashes.

Part of the problem has been his serve; Alcaraz has 21 double faults during this fortnight and those yips have cost him the first set in each of his last two matches. He went on to blast Tommy Paul and Daniil Medvedev easily after losing set one, but the opening set was an issue.

Djokovic might be coming off knee surgery, but he is one of the greatest competitors in history. His vaunted return game is partially responsible for his seven Wimbledon titles. While he may take one set, Alcaraz won’t slink away if he does.

The Serbian legend may win a set, but he hasn’t faced this kind of heat this fortnight, and Alcaraz can run and hit for days. Carlitos may have respect for his opponent, but he isn’t afraid of him, nor will he wilt if Djokovic breaks his serve. He’s going to test the Djokovic knee on every ball, and his mix of shots and ability to go from defense to attack along with the endless pressure he brings will keep this match from going longer than four sets.

Best bet: Alcaraz -1.5 sets (+130 at DraftKings)

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