Wimbledon Men's Semifinal Odds & Predictions: Musetti Moves Past Djokovic

No. 2 Novak Djokovic has found his way into a record 13th Wimbledon semifinal and is the overwhelming Wimbledon odds favorite when he faces No. 25 Lorenzo Musetti in a rematch of their 2024 French Open bout.

Their last encounter in Paris ended with Djokovic serving Musetti a fifth-set bagel, and French Open-ending meniscus surgery for Joker. My predictions and best bet for this match expects a much closer affair than what we witnessed in Paris and also on the betting boards.

Read on for my Musetti vs. Djokovic predictions and free betting picks for Friday, July 12. 

Wimbledon Men's Semifinal picks and predictions

• Prediction: Musetti moneyline (+550 at FanDuel)
• Best bet: Musetti Over 14.5 games (-120 at FanDuel)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 7-11-2024.

Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic match prediction

No. 25 seed Lorenzo Musetti’s grass-court run began after a heartbreaking five-set loss in the fourth round of the French Open.

His cruel loss in Paris to Novak Djokovic was a tough one for the 22-year-old Italian. He was leading two sets to one before Djokovic blanked Musetti in the fifth.

Since then, Musetti has won 12 of 14 matches on the slippery turf while Djokovic required meniscus surgery that forced his French Open quarterfinal withdrawal. Musetti is playing with confidence, whereas Djokovic is playing with more bravado and with far less confidence in his movement.

Djokovic hasn’t faced a stiff test yet, but he isn’t playing that well, either. He’s dropped a couple of sets along the way because his lateral movement is limited, and his injured knee limits his deployment of his famous grass-court slide. Djokovic arrived in the semis after Alex de Minaur withdrew from their quarter, but we could see some deja vu as Joker lost his 2011 French Open semifinal match to Roger Federer after Fabio Fognini withdrew from their quarterfinal in Paris.

Musetti has pushed Joker to the limit in two of their last three matches, and if the Italian can hold his serve and keep his nerves in check like he did in his quarterfinal victory over Taylor Fritz, he could pull off a major upset on Friday.

Prediction: Musetti moneyline (+550 at FanDuel)

Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic best bet

If Musetti can keep his nerves in check, he can beat Djokovic, but my best bet is for the Italian to clear 14.5 games.

The key for Musetti will be to win one of the first two sets. That’s entirely possible for him as he’s accomplished this feat in three of his six matches with the Serbian legend, and Musetti is playing gritty tennis since his Paris loss to Djokovic.

The pressure is on Joker as he’s chasing a record eighth Wimbledon title, and he’s four weeks removed from knee surgery. The Serbian legend hasn’t played like the Djokovic of old in quite some time as the double faults are beginning to creep in. He’s not only lost his nerve, but also the crowd.

It’s become obvious the Centre Court faithful doesn’t care much for the Serb, and most of the fans should be supporting Musetti. The 22-year-old has the game to test the Djokovic knee and has past success against Joker to draw from. Musetti is playing with extreme confidence, and his mix of shots — including a backhand slice he carved up Fritz with — can hurt Joker.

Musetti isn’t afraid to battle Djokovic and he’s had strong wins on this surface. The Italian has the strokes to test the Joker knee and all the tools in his bag to clear 14.5 games.

Best bet: Musetti Over 14.5 games (-120 at FanDuel)

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