Wimbledon Women's Final Odds & Predictions: It's Krejcikova

We’re all set to crown a first-time Wimbledon champion on Saturday when Barbora Krejcikova and Jasmine Paolini meet on Centre Court from the All England Club in the women’s final.

Paolini is back to this stage of a Grand Slam for the second time in as many months, while it’ll mark the return to a Grand Slam final for Krejcikova over three years after she captured the French Open.

With the way both players are running, and given the Wimbledon odds we should be in for one of the best matches of the tournament and potentially one of the best Grand Slam finals in years on the WTA side.

Let’s break it all down in our free betting picks for Krejcikova vs Paolini on Saturday, July 13.

Wimbledon Women's Final picks and predictions

• Prediction: Krejcikova moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)
• Best bet: Over 22.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)

Click on each prediction to read full analysis.

Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on 7-12-2024.

Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini match prediction

The story of these two players is quite similar in nature. Neither woman experienced much success early on in their careers, but in their mid-twenties, the wins began to pile up.

Both players are 28 of age and just now realizing their potential, and while it was technically three years ago that Krejcikova broke through to win her first Grand Slam, the last couple of months have been kind to both.

Krejcikova has battled injury this year, but she seemed to get back to full health just in time for grass season. After reaching the quarter-finals in Birmingham, she’s built up a head of steam at Wimbledon with wins over Danielle Collins, Jelena Ostapenko, and the best grass-court player on tour in Elena Rybakina.

Paolini, meanwhile, won her first-ever WTA title at the 500 level back in February and played brilliant tennis last month at the French Open before continuing on with that level on grass.

Paolini can stun her opponents with winners and acute angles, but the defenses of Krejcikova may eventually wear her down here. The Czech returns and approaches the net with excellence given her extensive doubles background, and her craftiness should do well combat the pure shot-making talent of Paolini.

I expect a very close match, but oddsmakers have this one correct by anointing Krejcikova the slight favorite – especially when you consider she won the only Grand Slam final she contested.

Prediction: Krejcikova moneyline (-135 at DraftKings)

Barbora Krejcikova vs Jasmine Paolini best bet

This is a pretty interesting market to navigate. Initially, my thought was to take the over on 2.5 sets. After all, evenly-matched Women’s finals like this are generally cagey affairs with plenty of volatility on either side of the net.

Four of the last eight women’s finals at Grand Slams have gone to three sets, and two of them have missed going over the total on games by an incredibly close margin. When you consider the two incredible mismatches we had at the Australian Open and French Open this year, too, I think the picture becomes even clearer.

The books are only offering around +105 on both players to win a set here, however, and we can get the over on 22.5 games at -110. The 15 cents aren’t enough to influence me to take a slightly bigger risk and go for a three-set bet, which is why this is the correct thing to do.

I think either player can win this one, but a likely scenario may see Paolini’s find a way to hit through Krejcikova early and jump out in front. The Czech can counter with some brilliant point construction, however, and with a win in her only Grand Slam final, she should have the experience needed to claw back into the match and set us up for high drama.

Best bet: Over 22.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)

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