The Wimbledon semifinals are all set, and we’ll get things started on Thursday from the All England Club with a matchup between two players looking for the first Grand Slam titles of their careers, Donna Vekic and Jasmine Paolini.
Both players have been around for some time now, but it took until 2024 for both women to reach the semis of a Grand Slam. While this is the first go for Vekic, Paolini is now in the second of her life after making the Roland Garros final a couple of months ago.
Do my free betting picks believe Paolini’s newfound experience pays off here?
Let’s break down the Wimbledon odds ahead of Vekic vs. Paolini on Thursday, July 11.
Wimbledon Women's Semifinal picks and predictions
- Prediction: Paolini moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
- Best bet: Paolini -2.5 games (-120 at DraftKings)
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini odds
| (n/r) Donna Vekic | (13) Jasmine Paolini | |
|---|---|---|
| +135 | Moneyline | -175 |
| +2.5 (-105) | Game spread | -2.5 (-120) |
| Over 22.5 (+100) | Total games | Under 22.5 (-125) |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 9, 2024.
Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini match prediction
First thing’s first – these two have met twice in their careers with Paolini controlling the head-to-head 2-1.
They’ve met just once in the past three seasons, though, with Paolini emerging the victor in straight last year on the hardcourts in Montreal.
I like that success to continue here against Vekic, a rather one-dimensional player who hasn’t made the improvements that her opponent has. Paolini has faced three big hitters in succession over the past week in Emma Navarro, Madison Keys, and Bianca Andreescu – answering the bell each time and displaying some great returning skills.
It’s the increased tolerance in rallies that should help Paolini here, given she’s now likely in a better position to beat a middling baseliner in Vekic who has relied upon her big serve a lot here at Wimbledon.
The Italian has a fun and surprisingly big game, hitting winners from all over the court and finding pop and angles on the forehand. I think she’s going to have a much easier job constructing points than Vekic, and if she can keep returning well the head-to-head should continue to tilt in her favor.
Prediction: Paolini moneyline (-175 at DraftKings)
Donna Vekic vs Jasmine Paolini best bet
I’m completely fine with laying the games here on Paolini’s side. There’s a case that her draw hasn’t been as tough as Vekic’s, but she’s also spent considerably less time on the court than her opponent and has also looked the part of a much stronger player all season long.
Paolini covered the spread in both of her wins against Vekic in her career while laying an egg in the other and losing in two quick sets three years ago. That happened to come at the very end of the season, after two months of a lot of tennis which came as the result of a lot of winning, and a week-long break after the defeat backs up that story.
She’s also got the benefit of having experience in the second week of a Grand Slam, too, taking out Elena Rybakina in the French Open quarters before moving past Mirra Andreeva in the semis. She’s brimming with confidence and is playing the best tennis of her career. Believe in the Italian.
Best bet: Paolini -2.5 games (-120 at DraftKings)
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