Iga Swiatek may have only captured two of last year’s four Grand Slams, but she once again enters the 2024 season as the overwhelming favorite to win nearly every tournament she plays in.
The newly-anointed “Big Three” in women’s tennis are expected to control the proceedings in the Australian Open odds, but there are plenty of worthy challengers who are worth discussing.
Without further ado, let’s break down the draw.
Odds to win 2024 Australian Open Women's Singles
| Player |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Iga Swiatek | +220 | +250 |
| Aryna Sabalenka | +450 | +400 |
| Elena Rybakina | +500 | +500 |
| Coco Gauff | +550 | +550 |
| Jessica Pegula | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Mirra Andreeva | +2,800 | +4,000 |
| Qinwen Zheng | +2,800 | +3,000 |
| Naomi Osaka | +3,300 | +4,000 |
| Ons Jabeur | +3,300 | +3,000 |
| Marketa Vondrousova | +3,300 | +6,500 |
Odds as of January 12, 2024.
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Australian Open 2024 Women's favorites
Who's hot
Iga Swiatek (+220)
The Australian Open is the one trophy which has alluded Swiatek in her illustrious yet short career to this point. The 22-year-old is already a four-time Grand Slam champion who rarely loses, going down just 12 times last season and beginning this season with a perfect 5-0 record down at the United Cup.
Despite the novelty of the event, Swiatek’s run Down Under at the United Cup should certainly be treated with respect, given both money and ranking points are awarded with each match, and with the high-intensity nature of all matches that were played.
Swiatek took out a tough customer there in Caroline Garcia, a top-10 talent in Beatriz Haddad Maia, and one of the oddsmakers’ favorites to win this event after the top stars in Qinwen Zheng. Most impressively, she did so without breaking much of a sweat.
Aryna Sabalenka (+450)
Last year’s Australian Open champion has finally shook off her Grand Slam demons and looks to be a real problem for everyone in the women’s draw for years to come. Though her 4-1 record is slightly less impressive than Swiatek’s, her wins en route to the Brisbane final all came against very good competition, culminating in a win over Viktoria Azarenka who has once again been playing excellent tennis upon returning to Australia.
The Belarusian is still serving as big as anyone on tour, and will play matches on her terms. She has the chance to beat anyone on the world on her day given her impressive power, it’s just a question of where her mind is at.
Elena Rybakina (+500)
The 24-year-old is one of the only women in the world who can claim to serve as big as Sabalenka, and she’s looking poised to add another Grand Slam trophy to her mantle after a handful of unsuccessful major tournaments since her win at Wimbledon two years ago.
She is the one who eventually stopped Sabalenka in her tracks in the Brisbane final last week, and with a 4-1 head-to-head against Swiatek and big wins over every top player in the draw, she certainly should make a deep run here in Melbourne.
With the win in Brisbane, Rybakina has now established excellent form entering the first Grand Slam of the year with six wins in seven matches.
Coco Gauff (+550)
The 2023 US Open champion chose to play in a slightly easier draw last week, but she still made quick work of the field in Auckland to earn herself a fifth title in two years to kick off the 2024 season.
Gauff’s serve was firing on all cylinders during the run, which saw her drop just one set, but her forehand should still be considered a liability and will likely get picked apart by the few women who can claim to be looking down at her in the rankings.
Gauff certainly finds herself in the right quarter, one which is headlined by Maria Sakkari, but she’ll have to look out for Garcia or Naomi Osaka, who she may face in the fourth round.
Who's not
Jessica Pegula (+1,800)
Pegula has started off with a 3-1 record this season, but she’s left a lot to be desired in her wins and seems to be misfiring more than normal from the baseline. She dropped her first match of the season to Katie Boulter as a massive favorite and has struggled in recent nights against inferior competitors.
Could she find her form here in Melbourne? Certainly. As of now, though, she’s not playing up to the level of her fellow Top 5 players.
Naomi Osaka (+3,300)
I’ll be honest, I see the two-time Australian Open champion as a sleeper in a very winnable quarter. With that said, she sat out the entire 2023 season as she gave birth to her first child, and even in the three years prior she barely played any tennis.
Osaka’s serve looks up to speed, but her movement and returning ability isn’t quite there yet. She fell to Karolina Pliskova in the second round of Brisbane and stands at 1-1 on the year as she enters Melbourne.
Australian 2024 Women's sleepers
Players to watch
Mirra Andreeva (+2,800)
The 16-year-old seems for all the world to be the next Iga Swiatek, and the oddsmakers’ pricing of the young Russian would seem to coincide with that.
She’s a hard player to take out, totaling a 81-21 record across all competitions (yes, dating back to when she was just 13) and this season she’s begun with a 3-1 record after reaching the quarterfinals in Brisbane. Andreeva was the victim of a major upset in that match when she played Linda Noskova, but she destroyed two solid players prior to that victory in Arina Rodionova and Ludmilla Samsonova and needs to be taken seriously this week.
Jelena Ostapenko (+3,300)
The 2017 French Open champion is one of the most volatile players in the world, crushing winners for periods in time and missing by several feet in others. The one thing she’s got going for her here is her supreme confidence that she can beat anyone in the world, and that was on full display last season as she came from a set down to defeat Swiatek at the US Open — something not many can claim to have done.
Ostapenko is in the midst of a second consecutive deep run at a WTA 500 event as of Friday and, while she could easily lose to anyone on any given day, her upside makes her a great value bet at this number.
Long-shots to avoid
Ons Jabeur (+3,300)
After the “Big Three” the draw should open up a decent amount, which is why I’m not really calling for bettors to avoid too many longshots.
With that said, Jabeur is very overseeded given her mediocre record relative to her talent over the last three seasons. We’ve yet to see her play a match in 2024, which puts her behind the proverbial 8-ball here given the activity of her fellow top players, and she’s also made an exit prior to the fourth round in back-to-back trips to Melbourne Park.
