UFC 279 Prelim Picks and Predictions: Dawodu Does Damage

UFC 279's main event has seen a surprise change, but the card is still supported by several intriguing bouts tonight in Las Vegas.

The preliminaries are loaded with potential, either as standalone picks or as part of a big parlay. We take a look at a few featured bouts on the preliminaries that might end up making your night.

Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 279 preliminaries on September 10.

UFC 279 prelim picks and predictions

Fight 1
• Prediction: Dawodu ML (-225)
• Best Bet: Dawodu by KO/TKO/DQ (+225)

Fight 2
• Prediction: Almeida ML (-660
• Best Bet: Almeida by Submission (-110)

Fight 3
• Prediction: Collier ML (-410)
• Best Bet: Collier by Decision (+150)

Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.

Erosa is making the most of his third tour of duty in the UFC, but he’s up against it here against Dawodu. Both fighters are coming into this with some momentum behind them, but Dawodu is all wrong for Erosa.

Even though Dawodu is giving up five inches in height against a strong southpaw, Erosa is too easy to hit and not crafty enough to keep him outside. Dawodu lands 5.39 significant strikes per 15 minutes, and Erosa absorbs an abnormally high 6.51.

Because Erosa tends to go for takedowns, he’s closing the distance for Dawodu and gives him an easy target. While Dawodu hasn’t scored a stoppage since 2019, we like his chances to open Erosa up and catch him at some point during their bout.

Once he realizes Erosa is too slow to the trigger and can’t keep him at bay, his sharper striking skills will wear him out and draw a stoppage. Take Dawodu by stoppage for a +225 haul.

Prediction: Dawodu moneyline (-225 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Dawodu to win By KO/TKO/DQ (+225 at DraftKings)

Almeida is continuing his flirtation with the heavyweight division, and he’s bound to make some noise with what we’ve seen so far. While Turkalj is undefeated, this is his first major fight outside the regional circuit, and he’s never faced someone with this much skill and movement in his eight-fight career.

With the frame of a heavyweight, but speed and reflexes of a light heavyweight, Almeida can dart in and send his opponents down to the mat where he is a legitimate terror. Both of these fighters are incredible takedown specialists with Almeida averaging 6.27 per 15 minutes and Turkalj nearly doubling that at 11.

However, Turkalj’s lack of power and unproven takedown defense doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence. This could be a cerebral fight where these two will be jockeying for position to get the other on the ground. At some point though, Almeida is going to put Turkalj down and in a position to get a submission win for a -110 pickup.

Prediction: Almeida moneyline (-660 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Almeida to win by Submission (-110 at DraftKings)

Collier has been trading a win for a loss over the course of his last few fights, but Barnett seems so overmatched here that we feel Collier is a lock to win this. Barnett has just one win in his last three bouts, is easy to hit, and relies too much on haymakers to get the job done.

While we can’t rule out an upset, Collier is rightfully favored in a big way here. “The Prototype” lands 5.67 significant strikes per minute and can be hard to slow down when he gets some momentum.

Despite what his record suggests, Collier’s split decision losses to Andrei Arlovski and Carlos Felipe should have gone his way. Barnett absorbs 5.59 strikes per minute and only successfully defends 39% of those shots, but his 260-pound frame will make him tough to take down and his power should keep Collier honest.

Collier is another big man who is a massive favorite, but because he isn’t a killer where he’ll go right after Barnett, there’s a chance this one goes the rounds. We’re liking the fight to go over 2.5 rounds and for Collier to win by decision at +150.

Prediction: Collier moneyline (-410 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Collier to win by Decision (+150 at DraftKings)

Pages related to this topic